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Hurricane FELICIA (Text)

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HURRICANE FELICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP082009
800 AM PDT FRI AUG 07 2009
 
FELICIA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN WITH A SHRINKING CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST
AND A LESS DISTINCT EYE ON SATELLITE PICTURES. THERE IS ALSO SOME
SUGGESTION ON NIGHT VISIBLE IMAGES THAT THE MID-LEVEL CENTER MAY BE
BECOMING SOMEWHAT DISPLACED FROM THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION.  A BLEND
OF THE DVORAK T AND CI NUMBERS FROM SAB/TAFB GIVE AN INITIAL
INTENSITY OF ABOUT 85 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.  STEADY WEAKENING IS
LIKELY AS THE CYCLONE TRAVERSES COOL WATERS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...THOUGH THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW.  IN ABOUT 48
HOURS...WATER TEMPERATURES START TO SLOWLY RISE...BUT VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MODERATE FROM THE WEST. THE MODELS
RESPOND TO THESE CHANGES A LITTLE DIFFERENTLY...WITH THE STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE SHOWING FELICIA WEAKENING FASTER THAN THE DYNAMICAL
GUIDANCE. THE NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...GENERALLY
A LITTLE ABOVE THE MODEL CONSENSUS...AND SHOWS FELICIA WEAKENING TO
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AS IT APPROACHES HAWAII.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION HAS TURNED A LITTLE BIT TO THE LEFT AND
ACCELERATED...NOW 295/11.  THIS IS PROBABLY THE BEGINNING OF THE
WELL-ADVERTISED GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST DUE TO SUBTROPICAL RIDGING
BUILDING TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THIS TURN AND LITTLE CHANGE HAS BEEN MADE TO THE EARLY
PART OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...THE STEERING
PATTERN BECOMES MORE COMPLEX WITH A SECOND MID-LEVEL RIDGE FORECAST
TO BUILD NEAR HAWAII AND A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST.  
IF THE CYCLONE HAS GAINED ENOUGH LATITUDE...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
THIS WEAKNESS COULD CAUSE FELICIA TO TURN MORE TO THE WEST-
NORTHWEST...A TRACK FAVORED BY THE ECMWF/NOGAPS/GFS MODELS. 
HOWEVER...ANOTHER SET OF MODELS...COMPRISED OF THE
GFDL/HWRF/UKMET/GFDN...SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST AFTER BYPASSING THE WEAKNESS IN
THE RIDGE.  SINCE FELICIA IS LIKELY TO BE WEAK AND STEERED MORE BY
THE LOWER-LEVEL TRADES...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL LEAN TOWARD THE
SECOND SCENARIO AT THIS POINT.

DATA FROM A G-IV AIRCRAFT MISSION TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE
HURRICANE THIS MORNING SHOULD BE ASSIMILATED INTO THE 1200 UTC
GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE...AND HOPEFULLY WILL BRING THOSE MODELS INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE LONGER-TERM.  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      07/1500Z 17.9N 135.6W    85 KT
 12HR VT     08/0000Z 18.6N 137.2W    75 KT
 24HR VT     08/1200Z 19.2N 139.4W    65 KT
 36HR VT     09/0000Z 19.5N 141.9W    55 KT
 48HR VT     09/1200Z 19.6N 144.5W    45 KT
 72HR VT     10/1200Z 19.5N 150.0W    35 KT
 96HR VT     11/1200Z 19.3N 155.5W    25 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     12/1200Z 19.0N 160.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
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FORECASTER BLAKE
 
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