Hurricane FELICIA

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HURRICANE FELICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP082009
800 PM PDT TUE AUG 04 2009
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT FELICIA HAS CONTINUED TO RAPIDLY
INTENSIFY OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. IN THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS
A BAND OF VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS HAS DEVELOPED EAST OF THE CENTER AND 
WRAPPED MORE THAN HALFWAY AROUND AN EYE THAT IS NOW APPARENT IN
INFRARED IMAGERY. BASED ON SATELLITE TRENDS AND A DATA-T NUMBER OF
5.0 FROM A 0130 UTC SPECIAL DVORAK CLASSIFICATION BY TAFB...THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 85 KT FOR THIS PACKAGE. 
 
FELICIA APPEARS TO HAVE SLOWED DOWN AND JOGGED TOWARD THE WEST
EARLIER TODAY AS IT BEGAN INTENSIFYING...HOWEVER THE CYCLONE NOW
APPEARS TO BE MOVING ALONG A HEADING OF 285/10...SLIGHTLY TO THE
NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
CENTERED ALONG 130W IS ASSOCIATED WITH A VERY AMPLIFIED DEEP-LAYER
TROUGH LOCATED OFF THE U.S. WEST COAST. THIS TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AND
MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...ALLOWING THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO RE-BUILD NORTH OF FELICIA IN 48 TO 72 HOURS.
MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AROUND A
WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH 72 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD
THE WEST AT DAYS 4 AND 5. LATE IN THE PERIOD...FELICIA'S TRACK MAY
BE IMPACTED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW THAT DEVELOPS NORTHEAST OF THE
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS IN MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS. HOWEVER...THERE IS
SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN THE POSITION AND INTENSITY OF THIS
FEATURE AND ITS IMPACT ON THE CYCLONE'S TRACK. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS SHIFTED NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE INITIAL POSITION AND A NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE DYNAMICAL MODEL
CONSENSUS...TVCN.
 
RAPID INTENSIFICATION APPEARS TO BE CONTINUING...AND ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED STRENGTHENING DURING 
THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO. THE SHIPS RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX
SHOWS A 45 PERCENT CHANCE OF A 30-KT INCREASE IN INTENSITY OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. WHILE THIS IS LOWER THAN IT WAS WITH THE LAST
PACKAGE...IT IS STILL 6 TIMES GREATER THAN THE SAMPLE MEAN. THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO BE LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE INTENSITY
OF FELICIA...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ABOVE EVEN THE HIGHER
SHIPS GUIDANCE FOR THIS PACKAGE BASED ON THE CURRENT SATELLITE
TRENDS. LATER IN THE PERIOD THE CYCLONE WILL ENCOUNTER COOLER
WATERS...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A SLOW WEAKENING AT DAY 3 AND
BEYOND.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      05/0300Z 12.8N 127.2W    85 KT
 12HR VT     05/1200Z 13.4N 128.8W    95 KT
 24HR VT     06/0000Z 14.4N 130.5W   100 KT
 36HR VT     06/1200Z 15.3N 132.2W   100 KT
 48HR VT     07/0000Z 16.1N 133.9W    95 KT
 72HR VT     08/0000Z 17.5N 138.0W    85 KT
 96HR VT     09/0000Z 18.0N 143.5W    75 KT
120HR VT     10/0000Z 18.0N 149.5W    60 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
 
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