ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM FELICIA SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082009 1000 AM PDT TUE AUG 04 2009 THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED TO REVISE THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF FELICIA. A 1327 UTC TRMM MICROWAVE PASS RECEIVED JUST AFTER ISSUANCE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY SHOWS THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN EYEWALL-LIKE FEATURE. IN ADDITION...RECENT VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL-ORGANIZED TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH HINTS OF AN EYE. SPECIAL DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB INDICATE THAT FELICIA IS NEAR HURRICANE INTENSITY AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 60 KT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS INCREASED AND IS BASICALLY A BLEND OF THE SHIPS/LGEM MODELS. THE MICROWAVE DATA ALSO INDICATE THAT FELICIA IS CENTERED FARTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SOUTHWARD TO ACCOUNT FOR THE RELOCATION. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 04/1700Z 12.3N 125.8W 60 KT 12HR VT 05/0000Z 12.8N 126.9W 70 KT 24HR VT 05/1200Z 13.8N 128.8W 75 KT 36HR VT 06/0000Z 14.6N 130.5W 80 KT 48HR VT 06/1200Z 15.3N 132.0W 80 KT 72HR VT 07/1200Z 16.5N 135.5W 75 KT 96HR VT 08/1200Z 17.5N 141.0W 65 KT 120HR VT 09/1200Z 17.5N 147.0W 55 KT $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/PASCH NNNN
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