ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082009 200 AM PDT TUE AUG 04 2009 THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED BUT LATEST AVAILABLE MICROWAVE IMAGERY SUGGESTED THAT THE CENTER WAS STILL LOCATED ON THE NORTHEASTERN SIDE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. THE OUTFLOW IS WELL-ESTABLISHED IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE BUT IS DISRUPTED IN THE EASTERN SIDE BY THE OUTFLOW OF ENRIQUE...LOCATED NOT TOO FAR TO THE EAST. T-NUMBERS HAVE NOT CHANGED VERY MUCH AND ARE 2.0 AND 2.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN KEPT AT 30 KNOTS AT THIS TIME...BUT THE DEPRESSION SHOULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TODAY. DESPITE THE INTERACTION WITH ENRIQUE....WHICH COULD BE A INHIBITING DEVELOPMENT FACTOR...BOTH SSTS AND SHEAR ARE CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS AND SLOW WEAKENING THEREAFTER AS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE SLOW INTENSIFICATION AND WEAKENING TRENDS SHOWN BY THE GUIDANCE. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 11 KNOTS. THE CYCLONE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN DEEP TROPICAL EASTERLY FLOW...BUT BOTH THE EFFECT OF ENRIQUE AND A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A WEAKNESS TO THE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS. THE DEPRESSION COULD SLOW DOWN A LITTLE DURING THAT PERIOD. THEREAFTER...ALL BETS ARE THAT THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION WILL REBUILD AS ENRIQUE WEAKENS...AND THE CYCLONE WILL TURN MORE TO THE WEST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THIS FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE GLOBAL MODELS AND IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE TIGHTLY-PACKED TRACK GUIDANCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 04/0900Z 12.3N 123.9W 30 KT 12HR VT 04/1800Z 13.0N 125.5W 35 KT 24HR VT 05/0600Z 14.0N 127.5W 40 KT 36HR VT 05/1800Z 15.0N 129.0W 45 KT 48HR VT 06/0600Z 16.0N 131.0W 50 KT 72HR VT 07/0600Z 17.0N 135.0W 55 KT 96HR VT 08/0600Z 18.0N 140.5W 50 KT 120HR VT 09/0600Z 18.0N 146.5W 45 KT $$ FORECASTER AVILA NNNN
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Page last modified: Thursday, 31-Dec-2009 12:09:20 UTC