Tropical Depression EIGHT-E

ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP082009
200 AM PDT TUE AUG 04 2009
 
THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED BUT
LATEST AVAILABLE MICROWAVE IMAGERY SUGGESTED THAT THE CENTER WAS
STILL LOCATED ON THE NORTHEASTERN SIDE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. THE
OUTFLOW IS WELL-ESTABLISHED IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE BUT IS
DISRUPTED IN THE EASTERN SIDE BY THE OUTFLOW OF ENRIQUE...LOCATED
NOT TOO FAR TO THE EAST. T-NUMBERS HAVE NOT CHANGED VERY MUCH AND
ARE 2.0 AND 2.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN
KEPT AT 30 KNOTS AT THIS TIME...BUT THE DEPRESSION SHOULD BECOME A
TROPICAL STORM TODAY. DESPITE THE INTERACTION WITH ENRIQUE....WHICH
COULD BE A INHIBITING DEVELOPMENT FACTOR...BOTH SSTS AND SHEAR ARE
CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS AND
SLOW WEAKENING THEREAFTER AS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE SLOW INTENSIFICATION
AND WEAKENING TRENDS SHOWN BY THE GUIDANCE.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 11
KNOTS. THE CYCLONE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN DEEP TROPICAL EASTERLY
FLOW...BUT BOTH THE EFFECT OF ENRIQUE AND A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A WEAKNESS TO THE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION
DURING THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS. THE DEPRESSION COULD SLOW DOWN A
LITTLE DURING THAT PERIOD.  THEREAFTER...ALL BETS ARE THAT THE
RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION WILL REBUILD AS ENRIQUE
WEAKENS...AND THE CYCLONE WILL TURN MORE TO THE WEST WITH AN
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THIS FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE
GLOBAL MODELS AND IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE TIGHTLY-PACKED TRACK
GUIDANCE.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      04/0900Z 12.3N 123.9W    30 KT
 12HR VT     04/1800Z 13.0N 125.5W    35 KT
 24HR VT     05/0600Z 14.0N 127.5W    40 KT
 36HR VT     05/1800Z 15.0N 129.0W    45 KT
 48HR VT     06/0600Z 16.0N 131.0W    50 KT
 72HR VT     07/0600Z 17.0N 135.0W    55 KT
 96HR VT     08/0600Z 18.0N 140.5W    50 KT
120HR VT     09/0600Z 18.0N 146.5W    45 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 
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