ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION ENRIQUE DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072009 800 PM PDT THU AUG 06 2009 CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT UNWAVERING ENRIQUE IS SUSTAINING A SMALL BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER. ACCORDINGLY...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY TRAVERSING 22 TO 23 DEGREE CELSIUS WATERS AND IS MOVING WITHIN INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AHEAD OF A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST. AS A RESULT...IT IS ASSUMED THAT ENRIQUE WILL DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW WITHIN 24 HOURS OR LESS WITH DISSIPATION IN 36 HOURS. ENRIQUE HAS SLOWED A BIT THIS EVENING...315/12...IN RESPONSE TO A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CALIFORNIA TO THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THE LARGE SCALE MODELS SUGGEST THAT A LOW TO MID LEVEL RIDGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO RE-ESTABLISH NORTHEAST OF THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII UNTIL AFTER ENRIQUE DISSIPATES. THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS IMPLYING THAT THE CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE ON A GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD MOTION UNTIL DISSIPATION. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 07/0300Z 23.2N 129.0W 30 KT 12HR VT 07/1200Z 24.3N 130.7W 25 KT 24HR VT 08/0000Z 25.5N 132.9W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 08/1200Z 26.6N 135.3W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 09/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN NNNN
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