Tropical Storm ENRIQUE
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TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072009
800 AM PDT THU AUG 06 2009
THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN OF ENRIQUE HAS DEGRADED DURING THE PAST 6
HOURS. THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED AND BANDING FEATURES HAVE BECOME
ALMOST NON-EXISTENT. DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE DECREASED AND SUPPORT
LOWERING THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 35 KT. A FORTUITOUS 1015 UTC
AMSR-E OVERPASS WAS EXTREMELY HELPFUL IN LOCATING THE CENTER OF THE
CYCLONE. ENRIQUE IS ALREADY OVER SSTS BELOW 24 DEGREES CELSIUS AND
HEADING TOWARD EVEN COOLER WATERS. THEREFORE... CONTINUED WEAKENING
IS PREDICTED AND ENRIQUE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME REMNANT LOW IN A DAY
OR SO.
THE INITIAL MOTION APPEARS TO HAVE TURNED MORE TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300/15 KT. AS THE CYCLONE WEAKENS AND
BECOMES A SHALLOWER SYSTEM...IT SHOULD TURN A LITTLE MORE WESTWARD
WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS ALONG
THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE AND IS CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS NHC TRACK.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 06/1500Z 21.3N 127.6W 35 KT
12HR VT 07/0000Z 22.2N 129.5W 30 KT
24HR VT 07/1200Z 23.0N 132.2W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 08/0000Z 23.2N 135.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED
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FORECASTER BROWN
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