ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072009 200 AM PDT THU AUG 06 2009 CONTRARY TO WHAT THE MODELS WERE INDICATING...ENRIQUE HAS REMAINED DETACHED FROM FELICIA. IN FACT...MICROWAVE DATA SHOW THAT ENRIQUE HAS SURPRISINGLY MAINTAINED A WELL-DEFINED CONVECTIVE RING ASSOCIATED WITH THE CENTER...WHICH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SMALL BUT STRONG AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS. BASED ON THE RESILIENT CLOUD PATTERN AND A 0300 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 45 KNOTS. NEITHER THE SHEAR NOR THE PROXIMITY TO FELICIA HAVE WEAKENED ENRIQUE...BUT THE CYCLONE IS ALREADY OVER 24.4 DEGREES CELSIUS WATERS AND IS HEADING TOWARD EVEN COLDER SSTS. THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE KISS OF DEATH AND ENRIQUE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 36 HOURS OR LESS. ENRIQUE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 15 KNOTS WITHIN THE FLOW BETWEEN THE NORTHERN CIRCULATION OF FELICIA AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THE CYCLONE SHOULD BEGIN TO BE STEERED MORE THE WEST BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW AS IT WEAKENS AND BECOMES A SHALLOW SYSTEM. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS DO NOT EVEN ACKNOWLEDGE THE PRESENCE OF ENRIQUE...AND THE ONES THAT DO...MOVE THE CYCLONE NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN WESTWARD UNTIL DISSIPATION. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 06/0900Z 20.7N 125.9W 45 KT 12HR VT 06/1800Z 22.0N 127.8W 40 KT 24HR VT 07/0600Z 22.5N 130.5W 30 KT 36HR VT 07/1800Z 23.0N 133.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER AVILA NNNN
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Page last modified: Thursday, 31-Dec-2009 12:09:20 UTC