ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072009 200 AM PDT WED AUG 05 2009 A SERIES OF MICROWAVE IMAGES INDICATES THAT THE CENTER OF ENRIQUE IS LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF A SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. T-NUMBERS HAVE CONTINUED TO DECREASE...BUT QUIKSCAT DATA AT 0230 UTC SHOWED A COUPLE OF 50-KT WIND VECTORS. ALTHOUGH THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS DETERIORATED...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 45 KNOTS BASED ON THE QUIKSCAT DATA. ENRIQUE SHOULD WEAKEN PRIMARILY DUE TO NORTHERLY SHEAR...BUT MOST LIKELY IT WILL BECOME ABSORBED IN A DAY OR TWO BY THE MUCH LARGER AND STRONGER CIRCULATION OF HURRICANE FELICIA LOCATED NOT TOO FAR TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. IN FACT...THIS HAS BEEN THE SOLUTION PROVIDED BY MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS. ENRIQUE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 KNOTS...EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW BETWEEN FELICIA AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A TURN MORE TO THE WEST AS ENRIQUE OR THE REMNANT LOW GRADUALLY APPROACHES FELICIA. MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW THE WEST-NORTHWEST TO WEST TRACK AND DO NOT KEEP THE CYCLONE BEYOND A DAY OR TWO. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 05/0900Z 16.8N 120.8W 45 KT 12HR VT 05/1800Z 17.7N 122.6W 40 KT 24HR VT 06/0600Z 19.0N 125.0W 30 KT 36HR VT 06/1800Z 19.5N 127.5W 25 KT 48HR VT 07/0600Z 19.5N 130.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER AVILA NNNN
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Page last modified: Thursday, 31-Dec-2009 12:09:20 UTC