ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072009 200 PM PDT TUE AUG 04 2009 ENRIQUE IS EXHIBITING FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED BANDING FEATURES ON VISIBLE IMAGERY BUT THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST IS RATHER SMALL. THERE IS A DRY SLOT OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE CIRCULATION THAT MAY BE CONTRIBUTING TO THE LIMITED EXTENT OF THE CENTRAL CONVECTION. BLENDING DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB GIVES A 50-KT CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE. ENRIQUE IS EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE MARGINALLY WARM OCEAN WATERS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT MODERATE NORTHERLY SHEAR WILL PROBABLY INHIBIT SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS ONLY A LITTLE MORE INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AND IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. AFTER 36 TO 48 HOURS...COOLER WATERS WILL LIKELY CAUSE GRADUAL WEAKENING. THE PRESENCE OF NEIGHBORING TROPICAL CYCLONE FELICIA CONTINUES TO COMPLICATE THE FORECAST. SOME OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW ENRIQUE SWINGING AROUND THE CIRCULATION OF FELICIA AND MOVING FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO ENCOUNTER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES COOL ENOUGH TO DISSIPATE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. A COUPLE OF THE GLOBAL MODELS...NAMELY THE GFS AND ECMWF...PREDICT THAT FELICIA WILL ABSORB ENRIQUE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS IS QUESTIONABLE GIVEN THAT FELICIA...ALTHOUGH IT IS THE STRONGER SYSTEM... DOES NOT APPEAR TO HAVE A LARGER CIRCULATION THAN ENRIQUE AT THIS TIME. THE INITIAL MOTION CONTINUES AROUND 290/14. AGAIN THE TWO MAIN STEERING MECHANISMS ARE THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND THE CIRCULATION OF FELICIA. IT IS ASSUMED THAT THE FORMER WILL BE THE MORE DOMINANT CONTRIBUTOR TO THE FUTURE TRACK OF ENRIQUE. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT STILL SOUTH OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. THIS IS ALSO CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE LATEST GFDL AND HWRF TRACKS...WITH THE FORMER BEING CONSIDERABLY SLOWER THAN THE LATTER. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 04/2100Z 15.0N 118.4W 50 KT 12HR VT 05/0600Z 15.9N 120.1W 55 KT 24HR VT 05/1800Z 16.8N 122.1W 60 KT 36HR VT 06/0600Z 17.6N 123.9W 60 KT 48HR VT 06/1800Z 18.4N 125.7W 55 KT 72HR VT 07/1800Z 19.5N 129.5W 45 KT 96HR VT 08/1800Z 19.5N 134.0W 40 KT 120HR VT 09/1800Z 19.0N 138.5W 30 KT $$ FORECASTER PASCH NNNN
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Page last modified: Thursday, 31-Dec-2009 12:09:20 UTC