ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072009 800 AM PDT TUE AUG 04 2009 THE TROPICAL STORM'S CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS NOW BECOMING MORE DISTINCT. TAKING A BLEND OF THE LATEST DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM SAB AND TAFB GIVES 50 KT FOR THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE. ENRIQUE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER WARM WATERS WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODEST NORTHERLY SHEAR FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS SHOW ONLY SLIGHT STRENGTHENING AND THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT ENRIQUE WILL WEAKEN...AT LEAST PARTIALLY DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF NEIGHBORING TROPICAL STORM FELICIA. HOWEVER THE GLOBAL MODELS DO NOT APPEAR TO HAVE A TOTALLY REALISTIC INITIALIZATION OF THE TWO STORMS. BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND THE LATEST SHIPS/LGEM GUIDANCE...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS NUDGED UPWARD. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A BRISK 290/14. THE TWO PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISMS ARE A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE STORM AND THE CIRCULATION OF FELICIA. THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW SOME INTERACTION BETWEEN THE TWO CYCLONES AND THE DYNAMICAL CONSENSUS IS SUBSTANTIALLY FASTER AND SOMEWHAT TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK. IT IS NOT CERTAIN WHICH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONES WILL BE THE DOMINANT SYSTEM. EVEN THOUGH THE GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT FELICIA WILL DOMINATE...AT THE MOMENT ENRIQUE APPEARS TO HAVE A SLIGHTLY LARGER CIRCULATION ENVELOPE. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES...THE CURRENT NHC TRACK FORECAST DOES NOT COMPLETELY BUY INTO THE LATEST DYNAMICAL MODELS BUT IS BETWEEN THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 04/1500Z 14.7N 117.1W 50 KT 12HR VT 05/0000Z 15.5N 118.8W 55 KT 24HR VT 05/1200Z 16.5N 121.0W 60 KT 36HR VT 06/0000Z 17.2N 123.0W 60 KT 48HR VT 06/1200Z 17.8N 125.0W 60 KT 72HR VT 07/1200Z 18.5N 129.0W 50 KT 96HR VT 08/1200Z 18.5N 133.5W 45 KT 120HR VT 09/1200Z 18.0N 138.0W 35 KT $$ FORECASTER PASCH/BLAKE NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Thursday, 31-Dec-2009 12:09:20 UTC