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Tropical Storm ENRIQUE


ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP072009
800 PM PDT MON AUG 03 2009
 
THE CYCLONE HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE
LAST 6 HOURS...WITH THE CENTER EMBEDDED IN A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST
AND A PROMINENT CONVECTIVE BAND EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM THE
CIRCULATION CENTER. DVORAK CI NUMBERS WERE 2.0 FROM SAB AND 3.0
FROM TAFB...AND BASED UPON A BLEND OF THESE...THE DEPRESSION IS 
UPGRADED TO A 35 KT TROPICAL STORM.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/12...SIMILAR TO THAT OF THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE GLOBAL MODELS MAINTAIN A MODEST MID-
TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE NORTH OF ENRIQUE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...
WHICH SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE ON A TRACK JUST NORTH OF DUE WEST.
WHILE THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF ENRIQUE TO NEWLY-FORMED TROPICAL
DEPRESSION EIGHT-E TO THE WEST COULD LEAD TO A POTENTIAL BINARY
INTERACTION...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE CYCLONES WILL
NOT SIGNIFICANTLY INFLUENCE ONE ANOTHER. THIS FORECAST ASSUMES
LITTLE INTERACTION WILL OCCUR AND ESSENTIALLY REPRESENTS A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

THE SHIPS MODEL AND CIMSS ANALYSES INDICATE THAT NORTHERLY SHEAR...
ASSOCIATED WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND TROPICAL DEPRESSION
EIGHT-E...CONTINUES TO AFFECT ENRIQUE. HOWEVER...THE SHEAR
APPEARS TO HAVE DECREASED RECENTLY AND SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW AN
EXPANDING CANOPY OF CIRRUS OUTFLOW ONLY PARTIALLY RESTRICTED TO THE
NORTH. ENRIQUE SHOULD HAVE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT TO INTENSIFY IN 
FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH WARM WATERS AND MOSTLY LIGHT
NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR. IN FACT...THE SHIPS RAPID
INTENSIFICATION INDEX SUGGESTS ABOUT A 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF A 25 KT
INCREASE IN INTENSITY IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A GRADUAL DECREASE IN
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BEYOND 48 HOURS SHOULD RESULT IN SLOW
WEAKENING...BUT ENRIQUE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER AT LEAST 26.5C
WATER THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE INTENSITY FORECAST LIES 
BETWEEN THE MORE AGGRESSIVE SHIPS GUIDANCE AND THE ICON CONSENSUS.
SHOULD ENRIQUE MOVE MORE NORTHWARD AS A RESULT OF INTERACTION WITH
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E...THE CYCLONE COULD WEAKEN FASTER THAN
THE FORECAST INDICATES.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      04/0300Z 13.3N 113.9W    35 KT
 12HR VT     04/1200Z 13.9N 115.4W    40 KT
 24HR VT     05/0000Z 14.6N 117.3W    45 KT
 36HR VT     05/1200Z 15.1N 119.2W    50 KT
 48HR VT     06/0000Z 15.6N 121.3W    55 KT
 72HR VT     07/0000Z 16.5N 125.5W    55 KT
 96HR VT     08/0000Z 17.0N 129.5W    50 KT
120HR VT     09/0000Z 17.0N 133.5W    45 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BRENNAN
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Thursday, 31-Dec-2009 12:09:20 UTC