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Tropical Depression SIX-E (Text)

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP062009
800 AM PDT THU JUL 30 2009
 
CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES HAVE CONTINUED TO IMPROVE AROUND THE
AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE
PACIFIC OCEAN WELL TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HAWAII.  SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB HAVE INCREASED TO 2.0...AND
THE SYSTEM IS BEING UPGRADED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E.  THE
CENTER POSITION IS A LITTLE DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE...BUT A 1116 UTC
AMSU PASS INDICATES THAT IT IS PROBABLY NOT ANY FARTHER SOUTH THAN
ABOUT 12N.

THE DEPRESSION IS LOCATED ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE WHICH EXTENDS FROM NORTHWESTERN MEXICO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC...AND THE RESULTANT MOTION IS A QUICK
275/16.  GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT AN ANTICYCLONE WILL
BREAK OFF THE WESTERN END OF THE RIDGE AND MOVE WESTWARD...KEEPING
THE DEPRESSION ON A GENERAL WESTWARD COURSE SOUTH OF THE HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN BY DAYS 4 AND 5...AND THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE SHALLOW ENOUGH AT
THAT TIME TO BE STEERED WESTWARD BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.

UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING
FOR ONLY THE FIRST 36-48 HOURS...AFTER WHICH TIME SOUTHWESTERLY TO
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY INCREASE AS SHOWN
BY THE SHIPS MODEL.  THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST INDICATES
MODEST STRENGTHENING THROUGH 36 HOURS THEN STEADY WEAKENING
THEREAFTER.  THIS SCENARIO AGREES WITH THE SHIPS GUIDANCE AND IS A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN GFDL AND THE HWRF MODELS.

THIS DEPRESSION WILL BE CROSSING 140W SOON...AND ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION WILL BE PROVIDED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE
CENTER IN HONOLULU HAWAII.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      30/1500Z 12.0N 139.7W    30 KT
 12HR VT     31/0000Z 12.1N 141.9W    35 KT
 24HR VT     31/1200Z 12.3N 144.9W    40 KT
 36HR VT     01/0000Z 12.6N 147.7W    50 KT
 48HR VT     01/1200Z 13.1N 150.6W    45 KT
 72HR VT     02/1200Z 14.0N 156.0W    35 KT
 96HR VT     03/1200Z 15.0N 161.0W    30 KT
120HR VT     04/1200Z 15.5N 166.0W    25 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG
 
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