Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Cent
er on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Storm DOLORES


ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM DOLORES DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP052009
200 AM PDT THU JUL 16 2009
 
THE LOW LEVEL-CIRCULATION CONTINUES TO BE ELONGATED FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST AND IN FACT...THE LATEST QUIKSCAT SHOWS A DISORGANIZED
SURFACE CIRCULATION WHICH IS DIFFICULT TO FIND EVEN USING THE
AMBIGUITIES. HOWEVER...THERE IS A VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION
BUT THE CONVECTION IS VANISHING AT THIS TIME. SATELLITE ESTIMATES
ARE ASSUMING THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS COLLOCATED WITH THE
MID-LEVEL AND THE T-NUMBERS ARE 3.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE...SAME AS
00 UTC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 45 KNOTS BUT THIS COULD BE
GENEROUS GIVEN THE CURRENT LACK OF ORGANIZATION. BECAUSE A PORTION
OF THE CIRCULATION IS ALREADY OVER COOLER WATER...NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS FORECAST FOR TODAY.  THEREAFTER...DOLORES IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS THE ENTIRE CIRCULATION MOVES OVER COOLER
WATERS AND THE SHEAR INCREASES.

BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE LOCATION OF THE CENTER...THE
INITIAL MOTION IS ALSO UNCERTAIN. DOLORES APPEARS TO BE MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST A LITTLE BIT FASTER AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY
WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST AS DOLORES WEAKENS TO A REMNANT
LOW.  MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS KEEPING THE
CYCLONE OR THE LOW ON A NORTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK...BUT THE
MODEL SPREAD IS QUITE LARGER THEREAFTER. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE FOLLOWING THE
GFDL/HWRF PAIR AND THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST.
  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      16/0900Z 18.2N 119.1W    45 KT
 12HR VT     16/1800Z 19.5N 121.2W    45 KT
 24HR VT     17/0600Z 21.0N 124.2W    40 KT
 36HR VT     17/1800Z 22.0N 127.0W    35 KT
 48HR VT     18/0600Z 23.0N 130.0W    30 KT
 72HR VT     19/0600Z 24.5N 134.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     20/0600Z 25.5N 138.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     21/0600Z 26.0N 142.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Thursday, 31-Dec-2009 12:09:19 UTC