Tropical Storm DOLORES

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TROPICAL STORM DOLORES DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP052009
800 PM PDT WED JUL 15 2009

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE CIRCULATION OF DOLORES
IS SOMEWHAT ELONGATED FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.  IN ADDITION...
CONVECTION HAS BEEN ROTATING CYCLONICALLY FROM THE NORTH SIDE OF
DOLORES TO ITS CURRENT LOCATION IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. 
HOWEVER...CONVECTION IS NOW CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE STORM...THE
OUTFLOW IS EXPANDING WESTWARD...AND OVERALL DOLORES IS DISPLAYING A
HEALTHIER SATELLITE SIGNATURE THAN EARLIER TODAY.  SATELLITE
CLASSIFICATIONS FROM SAB/TAFB/CIMSS ARE ALL 45 KT...AND THE INITIAL
INTENSITY WILL BE RAISED TO THAT VALUE.  THERE IS A SHORT WINDOW
AVAILABLE FOR ANY FURTHER INTENSIFICATION SINCE THE STORM WILL BE
OVER SSTS LESS THAN 26C BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.  AFTER THAT TIME...A
SLOW WEAKENING IS LIKELY AS DOLORES MOVES OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER
WATERS.  THE WEAKENING COULD BE PROTRACTED DUE TO GENERALLY LIGHT
FORECAST ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  GLOBAL MODELS
FORECAST A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN SHEAR IN ABOUT 2 TO 3 DAYS...
WHICH SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO A TRANSITION OF THE SYSTEM TO A REMNANT
LOW AROUND THAT TIME.  

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 310/12.  THERE IS NO CHANGE
TO THE SHORT-TERM SYNOPTIC REASONING AS DOLORES IS BEING STEERED
PRIMARILY BY A LARGE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED
STATES.  THIS HIGH IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND SHIFT WESTWARD
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH COULD GRADUALLY FORCE THE
STORM ON MORE OF A WEST-NORTHWEST PATH DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. 
HOWEVER...SOME MODELS...SUCH AS THE GFS/ECMWF/NOGAPS...ARE NOW
FORECASTING A WEAKER RIDGE AND LESS OF A WEST-NORTHWEST TURN.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK BUT
STILL LIES SOUTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS...NOT TOO FAR FROM THE
GFDL/HWRF.  AT LONGER RANGES...MOST OF THE MODELS NOW SUGGEST A
DEEP-LAYER WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NEAR 140W...WHICH
COULD ALLOW A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION.  THE NHC FORECAST
HAS BEEN SHIFTED CONSIDERABLY NORTHEASTWARD BY 120 HR...BUT IS
STILL ON THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AT THAT
TIME.  
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      16/0300Z 17.1N 117.4W    45 KT
 12HR VT     16/1200Z 18.2N 119.5W    50 KT
 24HR VT     17/0000Z 19.4N 122.4W    45 KT
 36HR VT     17/1200Z 20.6N 125.3W    40 KT
 48HR VT     18/0000Z 21.5N 128.2W    35 KT
 72HR VT     19/0000Z 23.0N 133.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     20/0000Z 24.0N 139.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     21/0000Z 25.5N 143.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
 
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