Tropical Storm DOLORES

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TROPICAL STORM DOLORES DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP052009
800 AM PDT WED JUL 15 2009

ENHANCED AND SHORTWAVE INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICT THAT THE CLOUD
PATTERN HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING.  ALTHOUGH A 0856
UTC TMI OVERPASS SUGGESTS THAT THE CENTER OF DOLORES IS STILL
SOMEWHAT DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE DEVELOPING DEEP
CONVECTION...SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT OF THE BANDING FEATURES OVER
THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION WARRANTS AN INCREASE OF THE
INITIAL INTENSITY TO 35 KT.  THE ASYMMETRIC STRUCTURE OF DOLORES
APPEARS TO BE DUE TO SOME SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE.  THE UPPER
WIND FLOW...HOWEVER...BECOMES MORE DIFFLUENT OVER THE NORTHEAST
PORTION OF DOLORES WHICH IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW.

THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR MODEST STRENGTHENING
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE DOLORES BEGINS TRAVERSING OVER
COOLER WATERS.  IF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS AND
LIFTS OUT SOONER THAN SUGGESTED BY THE DYNAMICAL MODELS...THEN THE
CYCLONE COULD BECOME STRONGER THAN INDICATED IN THIS ADVISORY.   

THE TMI PASS WAS ALSO QUITE HELPFUL IN ESTIMATING THE MOTION OF THE
TROPICAL STORM...WHICH IS NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 11 KT.  THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH DOLORES REMAINING
NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  A TURN MORE TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED
BY DAY 4 AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS TO A REMNANT LOW AND BECOMES
INFLUENCED MORE BY THE SHALLOW EASTERLY TRADE WIND FLOW.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL
MODELS AND CONTINUITY FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.    
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      15/1500Z 15.0N 115.6W    35 KT
 12HR VT     16/0000Z 16.0N 117.0W    40 KT
 24HR VT     16/1200Z 17.5N 119.4W    45 KT
 36HR VT     17/0000Z 18.7N 122.2W    40 KT
 48HR VT     17/1200Z 19.6N 125.3W    35 KT
 72HR VT     18/1200Z 21.0N 131.5W    30 KT
 96HR VT     19/1200Z 21.5N 137.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     20/1200Z 21.5N 143.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BRENNAN
 
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