ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052009 800 PM PDT TUE JUL 14 2009 THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SPRAWLING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AS INDICATED BY VISIBLE IMAGERY AND A RECENT ASCAT PASS. WHILE THERE IS LITTLE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION NEAR THE CENTER...IT IS ORGANIZED INTO BANDS ON THE LARGE SCALE...WITH SUFFICIENT ORGANIZATION TO WARRANT THE INITIATION OF ADVISORIES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 30 KT ON THE BASIS OF THE ASCAT DATA. THE INITIAL MOTION IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE SINCE THE CIRCULATION CENTER HAS SO LITTLE HISTORY...BUT IS ESTIMATED TO BE 300/9. THE ENVIRONMENT IS COMPLEX...WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT MID LEVELS...AND A LOW AT UPPER LEVELS...LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION. THE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LOW IS ENHANCING CONVECTION TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER...AND THE CONVECTION IS ASYMMETRIC ENOUGH TO PERHAPS CAUSE THE CENTER TO JUMP OR REFORM TO THE NORTH OR EAST OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. APART FROM THIS...A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE THE SYSTEM WEAKENS OVER COOLER WATERS AND TURNS MORE WESTWARD WITH THE LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES NEAR THE RIGHT EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...CLOSE TO THE ECMWF...EARLY BUT THEN FAVORS THE LEFT-LEANING GFS/GFDL/HWRF SOLUTION LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE UPPER LOW IS CONTRIBUTING TO SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE CYCLONE'S CENTER...AND THE CURRENT LIMITED CENTRAL ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM ARGUES AGAINST SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING. HOWEVER...THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE DEPRESSION...WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT BEFORE THE SYSTEM ENCOUNTERS COOLER WATERS IN 36-48 HOURS. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON ONLY MODEST STRENGTHENING...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 15/0300Z 13.8N 113.8W 30 KT 12HR VT 15/1200Z 14.8N 115.0W 35 KT 24HR VT 16/0000Z 16.4N 117.0W 40 KT 36HR VT 16/1200Z 18.0N 119.3W 40 KT 48HR VT 17/0000Z 19.0N 122.0W 35 KT 72HR VT 18/0000Z 20.0N 128.0W 30 KT 96HR VT 19/0000Z 21.0N 134.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 20/0000Z 21.0N 140.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN NNNN
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Page last modified: Thursday, 31-Dec-2009 12:09:19 UTC