ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER 26 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042009 200 AM PDT THU JUL 16 2009 THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS DETERIORATED SIGNIFICANTLY AND I AM NOT SURE IF A CLOSED CIRCULATION IS STILL PRESENT. THE SYSTEM RESEMBLES A WEAK LOW OR A TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ. THERE IS NO EVIDENCE OF A CIRCULATION ON MICROWAVE DATA EITHER. HOWEVER...FOLLOWING CONTINUITY AND THE FACT THAT VISIBLE IMAGES ARE NOT AVAILABLE...I WILL MAINTAIN THE SYSTEM AS A 25-KT TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT THIS TIME. SHIPS MODEL WEAKENS CARLOS IMMEDIATELY AND BASICALLY DISSIPATES IT IN 24 HOURS. GIVEN THE CURRENT TREND AND THE INCREASING SHEAR...CARLOS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF MODELS WEAKENS THE CYCLONE QUICKLY TOO. THE CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST AT 12 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON THIS GENERAL TRACK STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. I DO NOT THINK THAT MODELS ARE VERY USEFUL GIVEN THE CURRENT SHALLOW STRUCTURE OF CARLOS OR WHATEVER IS LEFT OF IT. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 16/0900Z 10.1N 133.5W 25 KT 12HR VT 16/1800Z 10.1N 135.2W 25 KT 24HR VT 17/0600Z 10.3N 137.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 17/1800Z 10.3N 140.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 18/0600Z 10.3N 142.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 19/0600Z 10.5N 148.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 20/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER AVILA NNNN
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Page last modified: Thursday, 31-Dec-2009 12:09:17 UTC