Tropical Depression CARLOS
ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER 26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042009
200 AM PDT THU JUL 16 2009
THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS DETERIORATED SIGNIFICANTLY AND I AM NOT SURE
IF A CLOSED CIRCULATION IS STILL PRESENT. THE SYSTEM RESEMBLES A
WEAK LOW OR A TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ. THERE IS NO EVIDENCE
OF A CIRCULATION ON MICROWAVE DATA EITHER. HOWEVER...FOLLOWING
CONTINUITY AND THE FACT THAT VISIBLE IMAGES ARE NOT AVAILABLE...I
WILL MAINTAIN THE SYSTEM AS A 25-KT TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT THIS
TIME. SHIPS MODEL WEAKENS CARLOS IMMEDIATELY AND BASICALLY
DISSIPATES IT IN 24 HOURS. GIVEN THE CURRENT TREND AND THE
INCREASING SHEAR...CARLOS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER
TODAY. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF MODELS WEAKENS THE CYCLONE QUICKLY TOO.
THE CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST AT 12 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON THIS GENERAL TRACK STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW. I DO NOT THINK THAT MODELS ARE VERY USEFUL GIVEN THE CURRENT
SHALLOW STRUCTURE OF CARLOS OR WHATEVER IS LEFT OF IT.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 16/0900Z 10.1N 133.5W 25 KT
12HR VT 16/1800Z 10.1N 135.2W 25 KT
24HR VT 17/0600Z 10.3N 137.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 17/1800Z 10.3N 140.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 18/0600Z 10.3N 142.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 19/0600Z 10.5N 148.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 20/0600Z...DISSIPATED
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FORECASTER AVILA
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