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Hurricane CARLOS


ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER  22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042009
200 AM PDT WED JUL 15 2009

CARLOS REMAINS A COMPACT ANNULAR HURRICANE WITH A LACK OF DEEP
CONVECTIVE FEATURES OUTSIDE OF A NEARLY UNIFORM RING OF DEEP
CONVECTION SURROUNDING A 10 NM EYE.  RECENT INFRARED IMAGES...
HOWEVER...INDICATE THAT CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES WITHIN THIS RING
HAVE WARMED...HAVE BECOME SLIGHTLY LESS SYMMETRIC...AND HAVE SHRUNK
IN SIZE.  IN SPITE OF THIS...DVORAK T-NUMBERS OF 5.0 FROM BOTH SAB
AND TAFB SUPPORT AND INITIAL INTENSITY OF 90 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. 

SHIPS MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT WESTERLY DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SHOULD
NOT CHANGE APPRECIABLY IN MAGNITUDE OVER CARLOS DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS AND MAY EVEN DECREASE TEMPORARILY AROUND 24-36 HOURS. THIS
DECREASE IN SHEAR SEEMS TO BE IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWEEPING BY TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. FOR THIS
REASON...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A SUBTLE SHORT-TERM
DECREASE IN INTENSITY IN LINE WITH SHIPS MODEL AND ICON INTENSITY
CONSENSUS GUIDANCE. THEREAFTER...INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH AN ENHANCED MID-OCEAN TROUGH...COUPLED WITH THE
SMALL SIZE OF CARLOS...SHOULD INDUCE A FASTER RATE OF WEAKENING.
GIVEN THE RECENT POOR PERFORMANCE OF INTENSITY GUIDANCE...THE
CURRENT INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS OF LOW CONFIDENCE. 

RECENT SATELLITE FIXES YIELD AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 280/5...
WHICH REPRESENTS A GRADUAL SLOWING OF THE FORWARD MOTION DURING THE
LAST 24 HOURS. GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK
INITIALLY PERSISTS THE SLOWER MOTION AND LAGS MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL
MODELS.  AS CARLOS BEGINS TO WEAKEN LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST INDICATES AN ACCELERATION IN FORWARD SPEED AS
THE CYCLONE IS STEERED BY AN ENHANCED LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW.
THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK ESSENTIALLY REPRESENTS AN UPDATE OF THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

OF NOTE...WITH AN INTENSITY OF 90 KT...CARLOS HAS BECOME THE
STRONGEST HURRICANE SO FAR SOUTH IN THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC SINCE
RELIABLE DATA RECORDS BEGAN IN 1966.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      15/0900Z 10.2N 129.0W    90 KT
 12HR VT     15/1800Z 10.3N 130.0W    85 KT
 24HR VT     16/0600Z 10.7N 131.5W    80 KT
 36HR VT     16/1800Z 11.0N 133.4W    75 KT
 48HR VT     17/0600Z 11.4N 135.4W    70 KT
 72HR VT     18/0600Z 11.9N 140.5W    60 KT
 96HR VT     19/0600Z 12.0N 146.5W    50 KT
120HR VT     20/0600Z 12.0N 153.0W    45 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/AVILA
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Thursday, 31-Dec-2009 12:09:17 UTC