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Hurricane CARLOS (Text)

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HURRICANE CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042009
800 PM PDT TUE JUL 14 2009
 
THE EYE OF CARLOS HAS BECOME LESS DEFINED IN VISIBLE IMAGERY THIS
EVENING...BUT REMAINS VERY DISTINCT IN INFRARED IMAGES.  THE EYE
HAS COOLED A LITTLE DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS...BUT SO HAS THE
SURROUNDING RING OF COLD CLOUD TOPS.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FROM BOTH AGENCIES SUPPORT INCREASING THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO
90 KT.
 
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT CARLOS IS APPROACHING AN
AREA OF WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...AND THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN WESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BETWEEN 130W AND 140W DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THE ECMWF SHOWS SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER
200 MB FLOW IN THAT AREA THAN DOES THE GFS MODEL...WHICH THE
SHIPS GUIDANCE USES FOR ITS SHEAR COMPUTATION.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST WILL LEAN TOWARD THE GFS/SHIPS SOLUTION AND FORECAST ONLY
A SLIGHT DECREASE IN INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  LATER
IN THE PERIOD NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS PREDICTED TO INCREASE...WHICH
SHOULD PRODUCE ADDITIONAL WEAKENING.  THE INTENSITY FORECASTS FOR
TINY CARLOS HAVE PROVEN TO BE VERY CHALLENGING SO FAR.  IF THE
SHEAR TURNS OUT TO BE STRONGER THAN EXPECTED...THE SMALL HURRICANE
WOULD ALMOST CERTAINLY WEAKEN FASTER THAN SHOWN BELOW.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/6.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE GENERALLY KEEPS
THE HURRICANE ON A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING THROUGHOUT
THE 5 DAY FORECAST PERIOD.  THE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES IN THE FORWARD SPEED OF THE HURRICANE...WITH MOST OF THE
GUIDANCE HAVING EXHIBITED A SIGNIFICANT WESTWARD BIAS THUS FAR.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST ASSUMES THAT CARLOS WILL BE ABLE TO REMAIN A DEEP
SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND IF THIS OCCURS IT WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO MOVE MORE SLOWLY THAN THE GUIDANCE INDICATES.  SOME
ACCELERATION WOULD BE EXPECTED WHENEVER CARLOS WEAKENS AND IS
INCREASINGLY STEERED BY THE FASTER LOW- TO MID-LEVEL FLOW.
 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      15/0300Z 10.0N 128.6W    90 KT
 12HR VT     15/1200Z 10.3N 129.8W    85 KT
 24HR VT     16/0000Z 10.7N 131.4W    80 KT
 36HR VT     16/1200Z 11.1N 133.3W    75 KT
 48HR VT     17/0000Z 11.6N 135.6W    70 KT
 72HR VT     18/0000Z 12.0N 140.5W    60 KT
 96HR VT     19/0000Z 12.0N 146.5W    55 KT
120HR VT     20/0000Z 12.0N 153.0W    50 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
 
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