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Hurricane CARLOS


ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042009
800 AM PDT TUE JUL 14 2009
 
INFRARED IMAGERY AND A RECENT AMSR-E OVERPASS SHOW THAT CARLOS
CONTINUES TO HAVE A SMALL EYE...10 N MI WIDE OR LESS.  SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE 77 KT FROM SAB AND TAFB AT 1200 UTC...AND
RECENT OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS HAVE EXCEEDED 5.0 AS THE EYE GETS BETTER
DEFINED.  BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO
80 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/6...A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT AND SLOWER THAN
THE PREVIOUS MOTION.  CARLOS IS TO THE SOUTH OF A LOW/MID-LEVEL
RIDGE...WITH A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE LOW/MID-LEVELS TO
THE EAST OF THE HURRICANE.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS GENERALLY
AGREE ON CARLOS MOVING WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH SOME
ACCELERATION UNDER THE RIDGE...ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME SPREAD IN HOW
FAR NORTH THE CYCLONE COULD GET.  ON ONE SIDE ARE THE HWRF...
GFDL...AND UKMET...WHICH CALL FOR A MORE WESTWARD MOTION CLOSER TO
10-11N.  ON THE OTHER SIDE ARE THE NOGAPS AND GFDN...WHICH CALL FOR
CARLOS TO REACH 15-16N BY 120 HR.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS NUDGED
A LITTLE TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND LIES NEAR THE
MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.  IT IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE
FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE AND THE CORRECTED CONSENSUS MODEL.

CARLOS IS CURRENTLY IN A LIGHT-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...ALTHOUGH THERE IS
NOT A LOT OF CIRRUS OUTFLOW.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS PROBLEMATIC. 
THE CURRENT STRUCTURE AND TRENDS SUGGEST THAT CARLOS COULD BECOME A
MAJOR HURRICANE IN LESS THAN 24 HR.  HOWEVER...NONE OF THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE CALLS FOR CARLOS TO PEAK AT HIGHER THAN ABOUT 85
KT.  THE FIRST PART OF THE INTENSITY FORECAST THUS CALLS FOR CARLOS
TO REACH 85 KT IN 12 HR...WHICH COULD BE CONSERVATIVE.  LATER IN
THE PERIOD...CARLOS SHOULD MOVE NEAR OR UNDER AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
SOUTHEAST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.  THE GFS...ECWMF..AND CANADIAN
MODELS CALL FOR THE RIDGE AXIS TO LIE ALONG 10-11N...WHICH WOULD
LIKELY PRODUCE WESTERLY SHEAR OVER CARLOS.  THE UKMET AND NOGAPS
CALL FOR THE AXIS TO BE FARTHER NORTH AND PRODUCE A MORE FAVORABLE
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL LEAN MORE ON THE
GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN AND CALL FOR GRADUAL WEAKENING DUE TO SHEAR
AFTER 24-36 HR.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      14/1500Z 10.0N 127.5W    80 KT
 12HR VT     15/0000Z 10.2N 128.7W    85 KT
 24HR VT     15/1200Z 10.5N 130.2W    85 KT
 36HR VT     16/0000Z 10.9N 131.9W    80 KT
 48HR VT     16/1200Z 11.2N 133.9W    75 KT
 72HR VT     17/1200Z 12.0N 138.5W    70 KT
 96HR VT     18/1200Z 12.0N 144.0W    65 KT
120HR VT     19/1200Z 12.0N 150.5W    55 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Thursday, 31-Dec-2009 12:09:17 UTC