Hurricane CARLOS

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HURRICANE CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042009
200 AM PDT SUN JUL 12 2009
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT CARLOS MAY HAVE ENTERED A PERIOD OF
ARRESTED DEVELOPMENT DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...AS THE
INTERMITTENT EYE FEATURE HAS DISAPPEARED AND AN ASYMMETRY IS NOTED
WITHIN THE CENTRAL CONVECTION. AS A RESULT...DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE
LEVELED OFF...WITH ESTIMATES OF 4.0 AND 4.5 FROM SAB AND TAFB...
RESPECTIVELY.  GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS AND SATELLITE ESTIMATES...THE
INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 75 KT.

CARLOS SHOULD ENCOUNTER WEAK ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR AND WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK DURING THE NEXT 2 TO
3 DAYS...WHICH SHOULD FAVOR ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING.  HOWEVER...
THE SHIPS MODEL GUIDANCE NO LONGER INDICATES THAT CARLOS WILL BECOME
A MAJOR HURRICANE AS A CONSEQUENCE OF MORE MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC
PARAMETERS.  IN ADDITION...THE SHIPS RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX IS
NOT AS EMPHATIC AS IT WAS PREVIOUSLY.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ONLY
A LITTLE LESS BULLISH THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE AND STILL BRINGS CARLOS
TO MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS IN 36 TO 48 HR.  THIS IS ALSO A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE LATEST HWRF AND GFDL HURRICANE MODEL WIND
SPEED FORECASTS...WITH THE FORMER MODEL BEING SIGNIFICANTLY MORE
AGGRESSIVE.  THEREAFTER...THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT AND COOLER WATERS SHOULD RESULT IN GRADUAL WEAKENING.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 270/11.  A DOMINANT MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE SHOULD KEEP
CARLOS ON A GENERAL WESTWARD COURSE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH
SOME SUBTLE INCREASE IN LATITUDE TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.  MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE...HOWEVER...ON THE PREDICTED
FORWARD SPEED OF CARLOS BEYOND 96 HR...WITH THE GFDL AND HWRF
NOTABLY FASTER THAN THE UKMET AND ECMWF.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS
CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK AND ALSO TO THE TO THE DYNAMICAL
MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      12/0900Z 10.5N 120.0W    75 KT
 12HR VT     12/1800Z 10.6N 121.8W    85 KT
 24HR VT     13/0600Z 10.8N 124.1W    95 KT
 36HR VT     13/1800Z 11.1N 126.6W   100 KT
 48HR VT     14/0600Z 11.4N 128.8W   100 KT
 72HR VT     15/0600Z 12.2N 133.4W    95 KT
 96HR VT     16/0600Z 13.0N 138.0W    85 KT
120HR VT     17/0600Z 14.0N 142.5W    75 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/PASCH
 
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