Hurricane CARLOS

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HURRICANE CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042009
200 PM PDT SAT JUL 11 2009
 
SEVERAL MICROWAVE IMAGES EARLIER TODAY GAVE US THE INDICATION THAT
AN EYEWALL WAS FORMING AND FINALLY A RAGGED EYE FEATURE HAS BECOME
APPARENT IN VISIBLE IMAGES. THIS EYE IS BEING WRAPPED BY TWO
COIL-SHAPED CONVECTIVE BANDS AND HAS BEEN VISIBLE INTERMITTENTLY.
HOWEVER...THE STRUCTURE IN INFRARED IMAGES IS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE
AT THIS TIME. BOTH TAFB AND SAB ESTIMATES ARE 4.0 ON THE DVORAK
SCALE AND THE 3-HOUR AVERAGE OBJECTIVE ADT NUMBER IS 4.0. SINCE
THEN...THE EYE HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER DEFINED. GIVEN THE CURRENT
ORGANIZATION AND THE DVORAK ESTIMATES...CARLOS IS BEING UPGRADED TO
A 70-KNOT HURRICANE.
 
THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY LIGHT AT LEAST FOR THE NEXT THREE
DAYS AND THE OCEAN IS WARM IN THE DEEP TROPICAL PACIFIC ALONG THE
PATH OF CARLOS. THEREFORE...A CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION IS
FORECAST. HOWEVER...BEYOND 3 DAYS CARLOS WILL BEGIN APPROACHING
HIGH-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF A MID-OCEANIC
TROUGH...RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN SHEAR. A GRADUAL WEAKENING
COULD THEN BEGIN. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL WHICH
SHOWS WEAKENING BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
 
CARLOS HAS BEEN MOVING ON A STEADY WESTWARD PATH ABOUT 270 DEGREES
AT 10 KNOTS TODAY. THE STEERING FLOW SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
IS WELL-ESTABLISHED AND IS NOT EXCEPTED TO CHANGE MUCH.
THEREFORE...CARLOS SHOULD CONTINUE ON THIS GENERAL WEST TO
WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...AS
THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH STRENGTHENS. TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN A BETTER
AGREEMENT IN THE LATEST RUN WITH MOST OF THE MODELS KEEPING CARLOS
ON A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH FIVE DAYS...PERHAPS
VARYING IN FORWARD SPEED BUT NOT BY MUCH.
   
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      11/2100Z 10.5N 117.7W    70 KT
 12HR VT     12/0600Z 10.7N 119.3W    75 KT
 24HR VT     12/1800Z 10.9N 121.7W    85 KT
 36HR VT     13/0600Z 11.0N 124.0W    85 KT
 48HR VT     13/1800Z 11.2N 126.5W    85 KT
 72HR VT     14/1800Z 12.0N 131.0W    85 KT
 96HR VT     15/1800Z 12.5N 136.0W    80 KT
120HR VT     16/1800Z 13.5N 141.0W    70 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 
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