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Tropical Storm CARLOS


ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042009
800 AM PDT SAT JUL 11 2009
 
THE BANDING FEATURES PREVIOUSLY OBSERVED ARE CURRENTLY LESS DISTINCT
BUT THE CENTER IS NOW EMBEDDED WITHIN A STRONG CENTRAL DENSE
OVERCAST. DURING THE TIME OF THE DVORAK CLASSIFICATION AT 1200
UTC...THE PATTERN WAS A LITTLE RAGGED AND THE T-NUMBER CAME DOWN TO
3.0.  SINCE THEN...THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE
SYMMETRIC SUPPORTING A CONTINUATION OF A 55-KT INITIAL INTENSITY. IN
FACT...THE FIRST VISIBLE IMAGE OF THE DAY...JUST RECEIVED...SHOWS
THAT AN EYEWALL COULD BE FORMING.  

THE SHIPS MODEL INDICATES THAT THE SHEAR IS VERY LIGHT ALONG THE
FORECAST PATH OF CARLOS UNTIL IT INCREASES AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD. BY THEN...THE OCEAN IS EXPECTED TO BE COOLER.
THEREFORE...INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST AND CARLOS SHOULD BECOME A
HURRICANE LATER TODAY AND REACH ITS PEAK INTENSITY IN TWO OR THREE
DAYS BEFORE IT ENCOUNTERS THE LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. BOTH GFDL
AND HWRF KEEP CARLOS AS A 80 TO 90 KT HURRICANE.
 
CARLOS HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 KNOTS
DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...WITH THE EXPANSION OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE...CARLOS SHOULD
CONTINUE ON A GENERAL WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK ABOUT 10 TO 12
KNOTS THROUGH FIVE DAYS. BECAUSE THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG
GLOBAL MODELS IN THE STRENGTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...TRACK
GUIDANCE IS NOT AS TIGHT AS IT WAS YESTERDAY BEYOND 3 DAYS. AN
OVERALL WEST-TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK WITH A SMALL INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS STILL THE MOST FAVORITE MODEL SOLUTION.
 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      11/1500Z 10.4N 116.6W    55 KT
 12HR VT     12/0000Z 10.4N 118.4W    65 KT
 24HR VT     12/1200Z 10.5N 120.8W    70 KT
 36HR VT     13/0000Z 10.7N 123.3W    75 KT
 48HR VT     13/1200Z 11.0N 126.0W    80 KT
 72HR VT     14/1200Z 11.5N 131.0W    85 KT
 96HR VT     15/1200Z 12.0N 136.0W    85 KT
120HR VT     16/1200Z 13.0N 141.0W    80 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Thursday, 31-Dec-2009 12:09:17 UTC