ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION BLANCA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032009 200 PM PDT WED JUL 08 2009 RECENT INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS SOME DEEP CONVECTION REDEVELOPING WITHIN THE CIRCULATION OF BLANCA...ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM STILL LACKS SUFFICIENT CONVECTION TO WARRANT A DATA T-NUMBER USING THE DVORAK TECHNIQUE. WE WILL CONTINUE ADVISORIES ON THIS MARGINAL TROPICAL CYCLONE AT THIS TIME. A 1326 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS STILL INDICATED 25 TO 30 KT WINDS PRIMARILY NORTH OF THE CENTER. IT IS ASSUMED THAT THE CYCLONE HAS CONTINUED TO GRADUALLY SPIN DOWN SINCE THEN AND THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED TO BE 25 KT. UNLESS THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT REGENERATION OF DEEP CONVECTION...BLANCA WILL DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/09. AS A SHALLOW SYSTEM...BLANCA SHOULD BE STEERED ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK BY WEAK LOW-LEVEL RIDGING TO THE NORTH UNTIL DISSIPATION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THAT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 08/2100Z 21.2N 121.0W 25 KT 12HR VT 09/0600Z 21.5N 122.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 24HR VT 09/1800Z 22.0N 123.3W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 10/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/AVILA/PASCH NNNN
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Page last modified: Thursday, 31-Dec-2009 12:09:16 UTC