ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022009 800 AM PDT TUE JUN 23 2009 EARLY MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT ANDRES HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION THIS MORNING. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB REMAIN 4.0 AND 3.5 RESPECTIVELY. A VERY RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWS A BELIEVABLE 55-60 KT WIND VECTOR AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 60 KT. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY EN ROUTE TO INVESTIGATE ANDRES. DATA FROM THE AIRCRAFT SHOULD PROVIDE A BETTER ASSESSMENT OF THE CENTER LOCATION AND INTENSITY OF THE CYCLONE. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 315/10...A LITTLE FASTER THAN BEFORE. ANDRES CONTINUES MOVING AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE. IN THE SHORT RANGE...SEVERAL OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS TAKE THE CENTER INLAND ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST MAINTAINS CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND KEEPS THE CENTER OFFSHORE...HOWEVER IT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THAT ANDRES COULD MAKE LANDFALL LATER TODAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN BECAUSE OF THE POSSIBILITY OF LAND INTERACTION. IN THE LONGER RANGE...THE HWRF HAS SHIFTED SIGNIFICANTLY EASTWARD AND SHOWS THE CYCLONE MOVING INTO THE BAJA PENINSULA. THIS SHIFT HAS CAUSED THE CONSENSUS TO ALSO MOVE EASTWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED EASTWARD AND NORTHWARD DURING THE 2-5 DAY TIME FRAME...BUT IS STILL SOUTHWEST OF THE CONSENSUS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY PROBLEMATIC SINCE THERE ARE LARGE UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING LAND INTERACTION. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LITTLE...IF ANY...STRENGHTENING...HOWEVER THE NHC FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO BRING ANDRES TO HURRICANE STRENGTH WITHIN 12 HOURS. IN ABOUT 36 HOURS...ANDRES IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS AND INTO A MORE STABLE AIR MASS AND STEADY WEAKENING IS FORECAST THEREAFTER. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/1500Z 18.0N 104.4W 60 KT 12HR VT 24/0000Z 19.4N 105.6W 65 KT 24HR VT 24/1200Z 20.8N 107.1W 65 KT 36HR VT 25/0000Z 21.8N 108.7W 60 KT 48HR VT 25/1200Z 22.5N 110.2W 50 KT 72HR VT 26/1200Z 23.3N 113.2W 30 KT 96HR VT 27/1200Z 23.5N 116.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 28/1200Z 23.5N 118.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER BROWN NNNN
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Page last modified: Thursday, 31-Dec-2009 12:09:15 UTC