ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012009 800 AM PDT THU JUN 18 2009 SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO HAS ACQUIRED SUFFICIENT ORGANIZATION TO BE DESIGNATED A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...THE FIRST OF THE 2009 EAST PACIFIC SEASON. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 350/08. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN...SHOWING A MID-TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CUTTING OFF OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA TONIGHT. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW WILL STEER THE CYCLONE GENERALLY NORTHWARD AND TOWARD THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BETWEEN THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS ON THE LEFT AND THE ECMWF ON THE RIGHT...WHICH SHOWS THE BEST DEPICTION OF THE SYSTEM IN ITS FIELDS. DVORAK T-NUMBERS AT 1200 UTC WERE 2.0 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB. THE FIRST FEW VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES AND MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE THAT THE CENTER IS LOCATED ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 25 KT BASED ON THE LIMITED CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS THE SYSTEM BECOMING A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM PRIOR TO LANDFALL...IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE 0000 UTC RUN OF THE GFDL. ADDITIONALLY...THE INTENSITY PROBABILITY PRODUCT SHOWS THAT THERE IS A 33 PERCENT CHANCE OF THE CYCLONE BEING A TROPICAL STORM BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AFTER LANDFALL...THE CYCLONE WILL QUICKLY WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF MEXICO. THE FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY REQUIRE THE ISSUANCE OF A TROPICAL STORM WATCH AT THIS TIME FOR A PORTION OF THE PACIFIC COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO AND LAS ISLAS MARIAS. RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION MAY IMPACT THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO SOUTH OF THE WATCH AREA WELL BEFORE THE SYSTEM REACHES THE COAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 18/1500Z 18.2N 108.5W 25 KT 12HR VT 19/0000Z 19.8N 108.5W 25 KT 24HR VT 19/1200Z 21.5N 108.0W 30 KT 36HR VT 20/0000Z 23.1N 107.5W 35 KT 48HR VT 20/1200Z 24.9N 107.0W 25 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 21/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN/BERG NNNN
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