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Tropical Storm IDA


ZCZC MIAPWSAT1 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL STORM IDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   4              
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112009               
0900 UTC THU NOV 05 2009                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 
12.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/HR.                                        
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
I.  MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE                
                                                                    
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF 
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES 
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.              
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT.  X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS 
THAN 1 PERCENT.                                                     
                                                                    
                                                                    
      - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -      
                                                                    
VALID TIME   18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR   12      24      36      48      72      96     120  
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED       X       6      15      21      31      32      35
TROP DEPRESSION  7      36      31      19      23      20      17
TROPICAL STORM  89      53      46      42      39      38      33
HURRICANE        4       5       8      18       7      11      15
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1        4       4       6      15       6       9      12
HUR CAT 2        X       1       2       2       1       2       2
HUR CAT 3        1       X       X       1       X       1       1
HUR CAT 4        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
HUR CAT 5        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND   45KT    35KT    30KT    25KT    35KT    40KT    45KT
                                                                    
                                                                    
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS             
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
MARATHON FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
 
KEY WEST FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)
 
MARCO ISLAND   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
FT MYERS FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
VENICE FL      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
APALACHICOLA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
GFMX 290N 850W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
PANAMA CITY FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
GFMX 290N 870W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
BURAS LA       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
GFMX 280N 890W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
NEW ORLEANS LA 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
GFMX 280N 910W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
MERIDA MX      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   3( 6)
 
COZUMEL MX     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   7(11)   2(13)
COZUMEL MX     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 
BELIZE         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   2( 6)   1( 7)
 
PUERTO BARRIOS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
GUANAJA        34  X   1( 1)   4( 5)   9(14)   5(19)   2(21)   1(22)
GUANAJA        50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   1( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)
GUANAJA        64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)
 
PUERTO CABEZAS 34 13  11(24)   3(27)   2(29)   1(30)   X(30)   X(30)
PUERTO CABEZAS 50  1   3( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)
PUERTO CABEZAS 64  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
BLUEFIELDS     34  2   1( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
SAN ANDRES     34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
CP SAN ANTONIO 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   6( 9)   3(12)
CP SAN ANTONIO 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
HAVANA         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   2( 6)
 
ISLE OF PINES  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   5( 8)   1( 9)
 
CIENFUEGOS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)
 
GRAND CAYMAN   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   3( 4)   3( 7)   1( 8)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BRENNAN/CANGIALOSI                                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN                                                                


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Page last modified: Thursday, 31-Dec-2009 12:09:13 UTC