Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Storm IDA


ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM IDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112009
400 PM EST THU NOV 05 2009
 
THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF IDA HAS GRADUALLY DEGRADED SINCE IT
MADE LANDFALL THIS MORNING...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN
LOWERED TO 50 KT.
 
IDA APPEARS TO HAVE SLOWED AND TURNED MORE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD WITH
AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 330/3.  THE FORECAST REASONING HAS
NOT CHANGED SINCE THIS MORNING AND THE TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWARD
MOTION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.  THE GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED A
LITTLE EASTWARD AND IS A LITTLE FASTER DURING THE FIRST 48 HOURS.
AFTER THAT...THE MODELS SHOW A GENERAL NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK
INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.  THERE REMAINS A LARGE SPREAD IN
THE GUIDANCE AFTER 72 HOURS.  THE GFDL AND GFS ARE ALONG THE EASTERN
SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...WHILE THE NOGAPS IS ALONG THE
WESTERN EDGE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NEAR THE MIDDLE THE
ENVELOPE...BUT REMAINS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
 
IDA SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER NORTHEASTERN
NICARAGUA AND EASTERN HONDURAS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  SOME
RESTRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AFTER THE CENTER EMERGES INTO THE
NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE
EXTREMELY FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION AS UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE MODERATE SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM. 
LATER IN THE PERIOD WESTERLY WINDS BECOME QUITE STRONG AND SHOULD
ARREST FURTHER STRENGTHENING.  THERE REMAINS A LARGE DEGREE OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONGER-RANGE FORECAST...SINCE IDA MAY NOT
SURVIVE ITS PASSAGE OVER LAND.

THE BIGGEST IMPACT OF THIS SLOW-MOVING SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS WILL LIKELY BE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES
CAUSED BY EXTREMELY HEAVY RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA AND
HONDURAS.
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      05/2100Z 13.3N  83.7W    50 KT
 12HR VT     06/0600Z 13.9N  83.9W    40 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     06/1800Z 14.9N  84.1W    30 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     07/0600Z 16.0N  84.3W    35 KT...OVER WATER
 48HR VT     07/1800Z 17.1N  84.6W    40 KT
 72HR VT     08/1800Z 19.6N  85.7W    45 KT
 96HR VT     09/1800Z 22.5N  87.0W    45 KT
120HR VT     10/1800Z 25.0N  87.0W    45 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Thursday, 31-Dec-2009 12:09:12 UTC