ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER 20 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072009 1100 AM AST SAT SEP 12 2009 SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT FRED IS NOW A TIGHT SWIRL OF LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS...DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION. AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS DID SHOW SEVERAL REALISTIC 35-40 KT WINDS...MOSTLY IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE DROPPED TO 1.5 AND 2.0 FROM SAB AND TAFB...RESPECTIVELY. ASSUMING THAT THERE HAS BEEN SOME ADDITIONAL WEAKENING...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 35 KT. FURTHER WEAKENING IS FORECAST...AS FRED IS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER A RATHER HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT OF SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...MARGINAL WATER TEMPERATURES...AND DRY MID-LEVEL AIR. IN ALL LIKELIHOOD... FRED WILL BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOME CHANCE...ALBEIT REMOTE...OF REGENERATION TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...THEIR REPRESENTATION OF FRED SEEMS TOO STRONG GIVEN ITS CURRENT APPEARANCE...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME EVEN MORE ADVERSE THAN THEY ARE NOW OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ASSUMES THAT THE REMNANT CIRCULATION OF FRED WILL DISSIPATE IN A FEW DAYS. FRED HAS BEEN MOVING LITTLE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. HOWEVER... RECENT SATELLITE FIXES DO YIELD AN INITIAL MOTION OF 180/03. SINCE FRED HAS NOW BECOME A SHALLOW SYSTEM...THE EXPECTATION IS THAT IT WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS WITHIN A RATHER WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THEREAFTER...THE REMNANTS OF FRED SHOULD TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR EVEN WEST-NORTHWEST...SOUTH OF A BUILDING LOW-LEVEL RIDGE...WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE BUT SLIGHTLY SLOWER IN THE SHORT-TERM. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 12/1500Z 17.5N 33.7W 35 KT 12HR VT 13/0000Z 17.7N 33.7W 25 KT 24HR VT 13/1200Z 18.4N 34.4W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 14/0000Z 19.3N 36.4W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 14/1200Z 20.5N 38.6W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 15/1200Z 22.5N 44.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 16/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN NNNN
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Page last modified: Thursday, 31-Dec-2009 12:09:09 UTC