Tropical Storm ERIKA
ZCZC MIAPWSAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062009
2100 UTC WED SEP 02 2009
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED 2 5 13 17 28 36 NA
TROP DEPRESSION 35 38 45 40 36 34 NA
TROPICAL STORM 63 55 39 39 32 28 NA
HURRICANE X 2 2 4 4 3 NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 X 2 2 4 4 3 NA
HUR CAT 2 X X X X X X NA
HUR CAT 3 X X X X X X NA
HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X NA
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 35KT 35KT 30KT 30KT 25KT 20KT NA
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)
SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4)
MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7)
GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 4(11) X(11)
GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4)
LES CAYES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5)
PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 6( 9) 2(11) X(11)
SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9) 2(11) X(11)
PONCE 34 X 4( 4) 12(16) 5(21) 2(23) 1(24) X(24)
PONCE 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
SAN JUAN 34 1 6( 7) 14(21) 4(25) 1(26) 1(27) X(27)
SAN JUAN 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
SAINT THOMAS 34 1 17(18) 11(29) 1(30) 1(31) 1(32) X(32)
SAINT THOMAS 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
SAINT CROIX 34 2 21(23) 11(34) 2(36) X(36) 1(37) X(37)
SAINT CROIX 50 X 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
SAINT MAARTEN 34 12 17(29) 1(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 35 18(53) 1(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) X(54)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 50 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
BARBUDA 34 33 3(36) X(36) 1(37) X(37) X(37) X(37)
ANTIGUA 34 59 2(61) 1(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) X(62)
GUADELOUPE 34 67 X(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) X(67)
AVES 34 4 5( 9) X( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10)
DOMINICA 34 4 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
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