Tropical Storm ERIKA
ZCZC MIAPWSAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062009
2100 UTC TUE SEP 01 2009
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/HR.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED X 1 1 1 4 7 14
TROP DEPRESSION 7 7 7 7 14 19 23
TROPICAL STORM 89 77 64 53 52 50 45
HURRICANE 5 15 28 40 30 24 19
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 4 13 24 29 23 18 15
HUR CAT 2 X 1 3 7 5 4 2
HUR CAT 3 1 1 1 3 2 2 1
HUR CAT 4 X X X 1 1 X X
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 45KT 50KT 55KT 60KT 55KT 50KT 45KT
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7)
SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 5(10)
SAN SALVADOR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 4(12)
MAYAGUANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
MAYAGUANA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 9(13) 4(17)
GRAND TURK 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4)
GRAND TURK 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
LES CAYES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4)
CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4)
PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) 2(12)
SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) 1(10)
PONCE 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 8(14) 2(16) 1(17)
PONCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5)
PONCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2)
SAN JUAN 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 9(19) 3(22) 1(23)
SAN JUAN 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) 1( 7)
SAN JUAN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
SAINT THOMAS 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 11(17) 11(28) 2(30) 1(31)
SAINT THOMAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 1( 9) X( 9)
SAINT THOMAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
SAINT CROIX 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 8(13) 9(22) 2(24) 1(25)
SAINT CROIX 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) 1( 6)
SAINT CROIX 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
SAINT MAARTEN 34 X 3( 3) 15(18) 14(32) 5(37) 1(38) X(38)
SAINT MAARTEN 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 3(12) X(12) X(12)
SAINT MAARTEN 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 1( 5)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X 2( 2) 11(13) 8(21) 3(24) X(24) X(24)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
BARBUDA 34 X 8( 8) 19(27) 6(33) 2(35) X(35) X(35)
BARBUDA 50 X X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10)
BARBUDA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
ANTIGUA 34 X 5( 5) 13(18) 4(22) 2(24) X(24) X(24)
ANTIGUA 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
ANTIGUA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
GUADELOUPE 34 X 2( 2) 6( 8) 3(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13)
AVES 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) 1( 9)
DOMINICA 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
MARTINIQUE 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
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