Tropical Storm ERIKA

ZCZC MIATCMAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062009
2100 UTC TUE SEP 01 2009
 
AT 5 PM...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES HAS
ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE ISLAND OF ST. MAARTEN.
 
AT 5 PM...THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE ISLANDS OF ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ST.
KITTS...NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA.
 
AT 5 PM...THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
FOR THE ISLANDS OF ST. MARTIN AND ST. BARTHELEMY.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...U.S. AND
BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF ERIKA.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N  57.3W AT 01/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT   8 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE  90SE   0SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE  90SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N  57.3W AT 01/2100Z
AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N  57.0W
 
FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 17.7N  58.2W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...105NE  90SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 18.4N  60.3W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 45NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...105NE  90SE  30SW  45NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 19.1N  62.0W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 45NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...120NE  90SE  45SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 19.8N  63.8W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 45NE  30SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT...120NE  90SE  45SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 21.0N  66.5W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 45NE  30SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT...120NE  90SE  45SW  60NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 23.0N  69.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 25.0N  72.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.2N  57.3W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN
 
 
NNNN