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Tropical Storm DANNY (Text)

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TROPICAL STORM DANNY DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL052009
1100 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2009

DANNY REMAINS A POORLY ORGANIZED TROPICAL STORM.  THE STRONGEST
WINDS AND LARGEST AREAS OF CONVECTION ARE STILL WELL SOUTHEAST OF
THE CENTER...ALTHOUGH SOME DISORGANIZED CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY
FORMED NEAR THE CENTER.  JUST-RECEIVED QUIKSCAT DATA SHOWS ONE
RELIABLE-LOOKING 35 KT VECTOR SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER...SO THE
INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 35 KT.  ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE
UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN INDICATE ABOUT 15 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AS DANNY IS BECOMING EMBEDDED IN FLOW BETWEEN
AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE NEAR 26N71W AND THE POWERFUL UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.

DANNY HAS CONTINUED ITS ERRATIC MOTION THIS EVENING.  JUST
BEFORE SUNSET...THE EXPOSED CENTER APPEARED TO BE MOVING NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD OR NORTHEASTWARD.  SINCE THEN...THE CENTER HAS
DISAPPEARED UNDER CIRRUS CLOUDS...BUT IT SEEMS TO BE MOVING MORE
NORTHWARD AT A FASTER PACE.  THE INITIAL MOTION IS AN UNCERTAIN
020/10.  OTHER THAN THAT...THE TRACK FORECAST SCENARIO IS
UNCHANGED.  DANNY SHOULD ACCELERATE INTO THE WESTERLIES...MOVING
GENERALLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD FOR THE FIRST 24 HR OR SO...FOLLOWED
BY A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST AND EVENTUALLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD.  THE
NEW FORECAST TRACK IS NUDGED TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK
BASED ON THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION...AND LIES ALONG THE LEFT
EDGE OF THE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS THROUGH 48 HR. 
THE TRACK CALLS FOR THE CENTER TO PASS EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS IN
ABOUT 12 HR...SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD IN 24-30 HR...AND NEAR OR OVER
NOVA SCOTIA AND NEWFOUNDLAND IN 36-48 HR.

DANNY IS ABOUT OUT OF TIME TO STRENGTHEN AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE...AS
VERTICAL SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HR.  AFTER THAT...THE SYSTEM
SHOULD UNDERGO EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS
THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...CALLING FOR A LITTLE
INTENSIFICATION WHILE DANNY IS STILL TROPICAL...LITTLE CHANGE IN
STRENGTH THROUGH EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION...THEN SOME
INTENSIFICATION AS AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC.
 
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT SHOULD ARRIVE IN
DANNY AROUND 06Z TO BETTER DETERMINE THE POSITION AND INTENSITY.
AS DANNY BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL...ITS EXPANDING WIND FIELD MAY
IMPACT THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND.  THESE POTENTIAL IMPACTS WILL BE
HANDLED WITH GALE WARNINGS AND OTHER PRODUCTS ISSUED BY LOCAL NWS
OFFICES IN THAT REGION.
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      29/0300Z 31.4N  74.9W    35 KT
 12HR VT     29/1200Z 34.7N  73.8W    40 KT
 24HR VT     30/0000Z 39.5N  70.1W    40 KT
 36HR VT     30/1200Z 44.0N  64.5W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 48HR VT     31/0000Z 47.3N  58.1W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     01/0000Z 51.5N  45.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     02/0000Z 53.5N  30.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     03/0000Z 56.0N  14.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 
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FORECASTER BEVEN
 
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