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HURRICANE BILL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
0900 UTC TUE AUG 18 2009
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BILL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.5
NORTH...LONGITUDE 49.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 85 KTS
...100 MPH...160 KM/HR.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED X X X X X X 4
TROP DEPRESSION X X X X X 1 4
TROPICAL STORM 1 1 2 2 5 9 22
HURRICANE 99 99 98 98 95 90 71
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 20 12 11 12 17 22 26
HUR CAT 2 61 34 26 23 22 24 19
HUR CAT 3 17 44 44 38 34 28 17
HUR CAT 4 1 8 15 22 17 13 7
HUR CAT 5 1 1 2 4 4 2 1
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 90KT 100KT 105KT 110KT 110KT 105KT 100KT
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6)
YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8)
YARMOUTH NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
YARMOUTH NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5)
EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6)
BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6)
BAR HARBOR ME 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6)
PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7)
CONCORD NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6)
BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8)
BOSTON MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
BOSTON MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11)
HYANNIS MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
HYANNIS MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2)
NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11)
NANTUCKET MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5)
NANTUCKET MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2)
PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9)
PROVIDENCE RI 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
PROVIDENCE RI 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6)
MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9)
MONTAUK POINT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
MONTAUK POINT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
NEW YORK CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6)
NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6)
TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6)
TRENTON NJ 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7)
ATLANTIC CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
ATLANTIC CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6)
ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5)
WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8)
OCEAN CITY MD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
OCEAN CITY MD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7)
RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9)
CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
CAPE HATTERAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2)
MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6)
WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 24(25) 13(38)
BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 8(18)
BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9)
MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4)
PONCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
SAN JUAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5)
SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) 1( 6)
SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) 1( 5)
SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 7(10) X(10) 1(11)
SAINT MAARTEN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
SAINT MAARTEN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) X( 8)
BARBUDA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 6(12) X(12) X(12)
BARBUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
BARBUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2)
ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 4( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
DOMINICA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
NNNN
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Page last modified: Thursday, 31-Dec-2009 12:09:05 UTC