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Hurricane BILL (Text)

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HURRICANE BILL DISCUSSION NUMBER  29
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL032009
1100 AM AST SAT AUG 22 2009
 
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT BILL HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER
ORGANIZED AND THE T-NUMBERS HAVE CONTINUED TO DECREASE. INITIAL
INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED DOWN TO 85 KNOTS AND THIS VALUE COULD
BE GENEROUS. AN AIR FORCE PLANE WILL CHECK BILL THIS AFTERNOON AND
WILL GIVE US A BETTER ESTIMATE OF THE INTENSITY AND WIND RADII. BILL
IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN ITS STRENGTH TODAY BUT WITH COLD WATERS
AHEAD...A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN TONIGHT. IN ABOUT 48
HOURS...THE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SHOULD BEGIN AND BY 72 HOURS
BILL SHOULD BE FULLY EXTRATROPICAL.
 
THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN TRACK. BILL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES ABOUT 20 KNOTS. THE HURRICANE IS
ALREADY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW BETWEEN THE AZORES-BERMUDA HIGH
AND A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS
PATTERN SHOULD FORCE BILL TO RECURVE WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND BECAUSE THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE TIGHTLY
PACKED...THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST. THE
FORECAST TRACK BRINGS BILL TO THE WATERS JUST SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA
IN 24 HOURS. THEREFORE...ENVIRONMENT CANADA HAS ISSUED WATCHES AND
WARNINGS FOR EASTERN REGIONS OF CANADA.
 
LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY BILL ARE ARRIVING ALONG THE EAST COAST OF
THE UNITED STATES. THESE SWELLS WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD OVER THE
WEEKEND...CAUSING EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SURF AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP
CURRENTS. PLEASE CONSULT STATEMENTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE AND METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES FOR MORE DETAILS.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      22/1500Z 35.1N  68.6W    85 KT
 12HR VT     23/0000Z 38.0N  68.5W    85 KT
 24HR VT     23/1200Z 42.5N  65.5W    75 KT
 36HR VT     24/0000Z 46.0N  59.0W    65 KT
 48HR VT     24/1200Z 49.5N  49.4W    50 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     25/1200Z 52.0N  24.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     26/1200Z 58.0N   9.0W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     27/1200Z 63.0N   5.0W    20 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 
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