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Tropical Storm ANA


ZCZC MIAPWSAT2 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL STORM ANA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  18              
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL022009               
1500 UTC SUN AUG 16 2009                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ANA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 
14.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 55.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR.                                         
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
I.  MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE                
                                                                    
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF 
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES 
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.              
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT.  X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS 
THAN 1 PERCENT.                                                     
                                                                    
                                                                    
      - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -      
                                                                    
VALID TIME   00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR   12      24      36      48      72      96     120  
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED       2       2       6       8      13      26      32
TROP DEPRESSION 32      20      24      23      21      28      26
TROPICAL STORM  65      72      64      56      50      40      35
HURRICANE        2       6       7      13      16       6       7
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1        1       5       6      10      13       5       5
HUR CAT 2        X       X       1       2       3       1       1
HUR CAT 3        X       1       X       1       1       X       1
HUR CAT 4        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
HUR CAT 5        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND   35KT    40KT    40KT    45KT    30KT    30KT    30KT
                                                                    
                                                                    
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS             
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
JACKSONVILLE   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
DAYTONA BEACH  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)
 
ORLANDO FL     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)
 
COCOA BEACH FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   2( 6)
 
FT PIERCE FL   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   2( 7)
 
W PALM BEACH   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)   1( 9)
 
MIAMI FL       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   8(10)   2(12)
MIAMI FL       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 
MARATHON FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  10(13)   2(15)
MARATHON FL    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)
 
KEY WEST FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  11(13)   2(15)
KEY WEST FL    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)
 
MARCO ISLAND   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)   2(11)
 
FT MYERS FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   1( 9)
 
VENICE FL      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   1( 8)
 
TAMPA FL       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   2( 7)
 
CEDAR KEY FL   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
 
ST MARKS FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
APALACHICOLA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
 
GFMX 290N 850W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)
 
PANAMA CITY FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
PENSACOLA FL   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
GFMX 290N 870W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)
 
MOBILE AL      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
GULFPORT MS    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
BURAS LA       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
GFMX 280N 890W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)
 
NEW ORLEANS LA 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
GFMX 280N 910W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
COZUMEL MX     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
GRAND BAHAMA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   5( 8)   1( 9)
 
NEW PROVIDENCE 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   7(14)   X(14)
NEW PROVIDENCE 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 
ANDROS         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)   7(17)   1(18)
ANDROS         50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 
GREAT EXUMA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  13(13)   4(17)   X(17)
GREAT EXUMA    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
GREAT EXUMA    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
SAN SALVADOR   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)   2(12)   X(12)
 
MAYAGUANA      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  13(15)   1(16)   X(16)
MAYAGUANA      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
GRAND TURK     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  10(15)   X(15)   X(15)
GRAND TURK     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
CP SAN ANTONIO 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   3( 8)
 
HAVANA         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  12(14)   2(16)
HAVANA         50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)
 
ISLE OF PINES  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   7( 9)   2(11)
ISLE OF PINES  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)
 
CIENFUEGOS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)  10(16)   2(18)
CIENFUEGOS     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)
 
CAMAGUEY       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  13(13)   7(20)   1(21)
CAMAGUEY       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)
CAMAGUEY       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
GUANTANAMO BAY 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  20(21)   2(23)   X(23)
GUANTANAMO BAY 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
GUANTANAMO BAY 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
GRAND CAYMAN   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)   1( 8)
 
MONTEGO BAY    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   3(10)   X(10)
 
KINGSTON       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)
 
LES CAYES      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  16(19)   1(20)   X(20)
LES CAYES      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
LES CAYES      64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
PORT-AU-PRINCE 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)  17(25)   X(25)   1(26)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
CAPE BEATA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)  13(13)   9(22)   X(22)   X(22)
CAPE BEATA     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
CAPE BEATA     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
PUERTO PLATA   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)  13(14)   8(22)   X(22)   X(22)
PUERTO PLATA   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
SANTO DOMINGO  34  X   X( X)   2( 2)  21(23)   4(27)   X(27)   X(27)
SANTO DOMINGO  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
SANTO DOMINGO  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
PONCE          34  X   1( 1)  21(22)   9(31)   1(32)   X(32)   X(32)
PONCE          50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
SAN JUAN       34  X   1( 1)  17(18)   5(23)   1(24)   X(24)   X(24)
SAN JUAN       50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
SAINT THOMAS   34  X   2( 2)  18(20)   1(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)
SAINT THOMAS   50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
SAINT CROIX    34  X   3( 3)  26(29)   1(30)   1(31)   X(31)   X(31)
SAINT CROIX    50  X   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
SAINT MAARTEN  34  X   8( 8)  10(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)
 
ST KITTS-NEVIS 34  X  22(22)   8(30)   X(30)   X(30)   X(30)   X(30)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 50  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
BARBUDA        34  1  17(18)   2(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)
 
ANTIGUA        34  1  26(27)   2(29)   X(29)   X(29)   X(29)   X(29)
 
GUADELOUPE     34  1  37(38)   1(39)   X(39)   X(39)   X(39)   X(39)
GUADELOUPE     50  X   5( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
AVES           34  X  11(11)  12(23)   X(23)   X(23)   X(23)   X(23)
AVES           50  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
DOMINICA       34  1  20(21)   1(22)   X(22)   X(22)   X(22)   X(22)
DOMINICA       50  X   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
MARTINIQUE     34  1   5( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BRENNAN/ROBERTS                                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN                                                                


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Page last modified: Thursday, 31-Dec-2009 12:09:03 UTC