ZCZC MIAPWSAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM ANA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022009
2100 UTC SAT AUG 15 2009
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ANA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
14.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 50.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED 2 2 3 3 5 7 12
TROP DEPRESSION 32 20 16 12 17 14 15
TROPICAL STORM 65 72 69 62 55 49 43
HURRICANE 2 6 13 23 23 30 31
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 1 5 10 19 18 22 19
HUR CAT 2 X X 2 3 4 5 9
HUR CAT 3 X 1 1 1 1 2 3
HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X 1
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 35KT 40KT 45KT 50KT 50KT 55KT 60KT
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5)
DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6)
ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9)
COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10)
FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12)
FT PIERCE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 11(15)
W PALM BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 11(16)
MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 11(16)
MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5)
MARATHON FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2)
KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 11(15)
KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5)
KEY WEST FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2)
MARCO ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14)
MARCO ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
MARCO ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13)
FT MYERS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
FT MYERS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11)
VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
VENICE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10)
CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7)
TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5)
APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5)
GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6)
PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5)
MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 10(15)
GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 10(20)
NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6)
NEW PROVIDENCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2)
ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 11(23)
ANDROS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6)
ANDROS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2)
GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 8(24)
GREAT EXUMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7)
GREAT EXUMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2)
SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 7(21)
SAN SALVADOR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7)
SAN SALVADOR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2)
MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 17(22) 4(26)
MAYAGUANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7)
MAYAGUANA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 13(25) 2(27)
GRAND TURK 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) X( 8)
GRAND TURK 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7)
CP SAN ANTONIO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12)
HAVANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10)
ISLE OF PINES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 9(14)
CIENFUEGOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 7(19)
CAMAGUEY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)
GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 15(18) 4(22)
GUANTANAMO BAY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5)
GUANTANAMO BAY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2)
GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9)
GRAND CAYMAN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
MONTEGO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 4(11)
MONTEGO BAY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
MONTEGO BAY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
KINGSTON 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 3(10)
KINGSTON 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
LES CAYES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 11(15) 2(17)
LES CAYES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5)
LES CAYES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 11(20) 1(21)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2)
CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 6(16) 1(17)
CAPE BEATA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5)
CAPE BEATA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2)
PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 11(29) 1(30)
PUERTO PLATA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9)
PUERTO PLATA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)
SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 7(28) X(28)
SANTO DOMINGO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8)
SANTO DOMINGO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2)
PONCE 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 26(31) 1(32) 1(33)
PONCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) X(11) X(11)
PONCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
SAN JUAN 34 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 30(37) 1(38) X(38)
SAN JUAN 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) X(11) X(11)
SAN JUAN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 15(15) 26(41) 1(42) X(42)
SAINT THOMAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) X(11) X(11)
SAINT THOMAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) X( X) 18(18) 20(38) 1(39) X(39)
SAINT CROIX 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) X(11) X(11)
SAINT CROIX 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 30(32) 10(42) X(42) X(42)
SAINT MAARTEN 50 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 4(11) X(11) X(11)
SAINT MAARTEN 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 33(37) 6(43) X(43) X(43)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 50 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 3(12) X(12) X(12)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
BARBUDA 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 33(40) 4(44) X(44) X(44)
BARBUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) 10(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12)
BARBUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) 10(10) 31(41) 3(44) 1(45) X(45)
ANTIGUA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11)
ANTIGUA 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) 11(11) 27(38) 2(40) X(40) X(40)
GUADELOUPE 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10)
GUADELOUPE 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
AVES 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 6(21) 1(22) X(22)
AVES 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6)
AVES 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
DOMINICA 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 13(19) 1(20) X(20) X(20)
DOMINICA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
DOMINICA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
MARTINIQUE 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 7(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13)
MARTINIQUE 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
SAINT LUCIA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
SAINT VINCENT 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
BARBADOS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Thursday, 31-Dec-2009 12:09:03 UTC