Tropical Depression TWO

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL022009
1100 PM AST WED AUG 12 2009
 
AFTER BEING ON THE VERGE OF TROPICAL STORM STATUS EARLIER THIS
AFTERNOON...THE DEPRESSION HAS MADE A COMPLETE TURNAROUND AND IS
NOW VIRTUALLY DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION.  THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS
EXPOSED TO THE EAST OF WHAT CONVECTION IS LEFT...AND A 2042 UTC
QUIKSCAT PASS BARELY SHOWED 30 KT.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD
AT 30 KT...BUT THIS COULD BE GENEROUS.  SHIPS GUIDANCE IS CURRENTLY
DIAGNOSING 15-20 KT OF EASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE DEPRESSION AND KEEPS
IT FOR ANOTHER 2-3 DAYS.  IN ADDITION...DRY AIR AND MARGINALLY WARM
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY INHIBIT MUCH STRENGTHENING
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST NOW ONLY SHOWS THE
SYSTEM REACHING 45 KT...AND THIS IS STILL HIGHER THAN ICON...THE
CONSENSUS OF THE INTENSITY MODELS.  VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE AGAIN BY DAY 5...THIS TIME STRONGER AND FROM THE WEST...
AND THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW WEAKENING AT THAT POINT.  ALL OF
THIS IS MOOT IF DEEP CONVECTION DOES NOT RE-DEVELOP SOON...IN WHICH
CASE WE WOULD LIKELY TERMINATE ADVISORIES.
 
THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN MOVING JUST SOUTH OF DUE WEST AT 260/12.
THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
TURN IN ABOUT 2-3 DAYS AS A WEAKNESS DEVELOPS IN THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE...BUT THIS TURN COULD BE DELAYED IF THE DEPRESSION DOES NOT
STRENGTHEN AND BECOMES STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.  THE NEW
FORECAST IS SHIFTED A LITTLE MORE TO THE SOUTH TOWARDS THE MODEL
CONSENSUS.  THE HWRF WAS NOT INCLUDED IN THIS CONSENSUS SINCE IT
HAS BEEN A CONSISTENT NORTHERN OUTLIER FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      13/0300Z 14.0N  36.3W    30 KT
 12HR VT     13/1200Z 14.0N  37.9W    30 KT
 24HR VT     14/0000Z 14.1N  40.1W    35 KT
 36HR VT     14/1200Z 14.3N  42.4W    40 KT
 48HR VT     15/0000Z 14.7N  44.8W    45 KT
 72HR VT     16/0000Z 16.5N  51.0W    45 KT
 96HR VT     17/0000Z 19.0N  57.5W    45 KT
120HR VT     18/0000Z 23.0N  64.0W    40 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG
 
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