Tropical Depression TWO

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL022009
500 PM AST TUE AUG 11 2009
 
THE DEPRESSION IS HAVING SOME TROUBLE DEVELOPING WELL-DEFINED
CONVECTIVE BANDING...AND THE DEEP CONVECTION THAT DOES EXIST IS
LIMITED TO THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.  THERE HAS BEEN NO IMPROVEMENT
TO THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE SINCE THIS MORNING...AND DVORAK FINAL
T-NUMBERS ARE T1.5 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB.  THIS SUPPORTS KEEPING
THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 25 KT.  

THIS FORECAST PACKAGE MAKES NO CHANGES TO THE INTENSITY FORECAST. 
THE DEPRESSION WILL BE TRAVERSING MARGINALLY WARM WATER AND BE
UNDER LIGHT SHEAR CONDITIONS DURING THE NEXT 3 TO 4 DAYS...ALTHOUGH
THE AMBIENT MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY AND
STABLE.  SLOW STRENGTHENING IS STILL INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST...PEAKING NEAR 50 KT IN ABOUT 4 DAYS.  THEREAFTER...THE
DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO REACH LATITUDES WHERE IT WILL BECOME
IMPACTED BY STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS...AND SOME
WEAKENING IS SHOWN AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS A LITTLE DIFFICULT TO LOCATE...BUT
IT APPEARS TO BE MOVING AT AN AVERAGE MOTION OF 275/10 AS IT IS
STEERED BY THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL FLOW SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE.  INTERESTINGLY...THE GFS...UKMET...AND CANADIAN MODELS ALL
SHOW A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION OCCURRING FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR
SO...SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST INDICATES THAT THE DEPRESSION WILL
MOVE DUE WEST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  THEREAFTER...THE MODELS ALL
INDICATE A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TURN AS A WEAKNESS DEVELOPS IN THE
RIDGE...BUT THE BULK OF THEM LIE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. 
THE NEW FORECAST IS THEREFORE SHIFTED JUST A LITTLE TO THE WEST ON
DAYS 4 AND 5.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      11/2100Z 14.6N  30.4W    25 KT
 12HR VT     12/0600Z 14.7N  32.0W    30 KT
 24HR VT     12/1800Z 14.7N  34.3W    35 KT
 36HR VT     13/0600Z 14.8N  36.7W    35 KT
 48HR VT     13/1800Z 15.0N  39.1W    40 KT
 72HR VT     14/1800Z 16.0N  44.0W    45 KT
 96HR VT     15/1800Z 18.0N  49.0W    50 KT
120HR VT     16/1800Z 21.0N  54.5W    45 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG
 
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