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Tropical Storm POLO (Text)

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TROPICAL STORM POLO DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP182008
700 PM PST MON NOV 03 2008
 
DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN INTERMITTENT NEAR THE CENTER OF POLO FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY...BUT HAS INCREASED SOMEWHAT OVER THE LAST FEW
HOURS.  DVORAK CI NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB SUGGEST THAT THE
CYCLONE IS NEAR OR JUST BELOW TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY.  GIVEN THE
RECENT INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER OF THE
CYCLONE...WE HAVE HELD THE INITIAL INTENSITY ON THE HIGH SIDE OF
THOSE ESTIMATES AT 35 KT.  AN UPCOMING QUIKSCAT PASS SHOULD PROVIDE
INFORMATION ON THE INTENSITY AND STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS AROUND 285/12.  THE FORECAST REASONING REMAINS
UNCHANGED...AS DOES THE SPLIT IN THE MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE...WITH
THE HWRF AND GFDL INSISTING THAT A MORE VERTICALLY COHERENT CYCLONE
WILL RECURVE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH.  THESE
MODELS ARE EVEN FARTHER REMOVED FROM THE REMAINING MODEL CONSENSUS
THAN THEY WERE LAST NIGHT.  WE CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE GLOBAL MODEL
CONSENSUS THAT TAKES A WEAKER...SHALLOWER CYCLONE TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A BEND TOWARD THE WEST AT DAY 3 AND BEYOND. 
ACCORDINGLY...THE CURRENT TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND THE LATEST GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS.
 
THE INTENSITY FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE SHIPS AND LGEM
CONSENSUS...INCREASING THE INTENSITY SLIGHTLY TO 40 KT BY 24 HOURS
AND HOLDING IT THERE THROUGH 48 HOURS.  BEYOND THAT TIME...A
GRADUAL SPIN DOWN TO A REMNANT LOW IS FORECAST AS THE CYCLONE WILL
ENCOUNTER INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DECREASING SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT IF POLO WERE TO LOSE ITS
DEEP CONVECTION...IT WOULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW SOONER IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
 
POLO REMAINS A VERY SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE...WITH A RADIUS OF
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF ONLY ABOUT 20 NM.  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      04/0300Z  9.5N 115.5W    35 KT
 12HR VT     04/1200Z  9.9N 117.1W    35 KT
 24HR VT     05/0000Z 10.7N 119.0W    40 KT
 36HR VT     05/1200Z 11.4N 120.7W    40 KT
 48HR VT     06/0000Z 11.9N 122.3W    40 KT
 72HR VT     07/0000Z 12.5N 125.5W    35 KT
 96HR VT     08/0000Z 13.0N 128.5W    30 KT
120HR VT     09/0000Z 13.5N 132.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/FRANKLIN
 
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