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Tropical Storm POLO


ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM POLO DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP182008
100 AM PST MON NOV 03 2008

EARLIER MICROWAVE IMAGERY SUGGESTED THAT POLO WAS DEVELOPING A TIGHT
INNER CORE...INCLUDING AN EYE-LIKE FEATURE.  HOWEVER...THE
APPEARANCE IN INFRARED IMAGERY HAS BECOME LESS IMPRESSIVE DURING
THE PAST FEW HOURS...WITH A NOTABLE WARMING OF THE CLOUD TOPS NEAR
THE CENTER.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB REMAIN
35 KT.  THAT WILL BE THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY...
ALTHOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE THE STORM IS A LITTLE STRONGER THAN THAT.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/14.  POLO IS CURRENTLY ON THE SOUTHEAST
SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE.  THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THAT
THIS RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD AND BE
REPLACED BY A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH BETWEEN 125W-140W...WITH A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPING EAST OR NORTHEAST OF POLO.  THE MODELS
ALSO FORECAST THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF THE STORM TO WEAKEN...
BUT NOT BREAK.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE RESPONDS TO THIS EVOLUTION BY
SPLITTING INTO TWO CAMPS...BASED MAINLY ON HOW VERTICALLY DEVELOPED
POLO IS.  THE GFDL...HWRF...BAMD...AND LBAR... WHICH KEEP A BETTER
VERTICAL STRUCTURE...FORECAST POLO TO TURN NORTHWARD AND EVENTUALLY
NORTHEASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO THE TROUGH.  THE ECMWF...UKMET...
CANADIAN...GFS...AND BAMS...WHICH HAVE A LESS DEVELOPED CYCLONE...
FORECAST A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR WESTWARD MOTION.  SINCE POLO IS
EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A GOOD VERTICAL STRUCTURE THROUGH 72 HR...THE
FORECAST TRACK WILL CALL FOR A GRADUAL TURN TO A NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION BY THAT TIME...IN BETWEEN THE TWO GUIDANCE CAMPS.  AFTER 72
HR...IT IS EXPECTED THAT A WEAKENING POLO WILL BE STEERED MORE BY
THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW...AND THUS THE FORECAST TRACK SHOWS A BEND TO
THE LEFT.  OVERALL...THE NEW TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK
AND IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE TVCN CONSENSUS MODEL.

POLO IS OVER WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND IN A LIGHT VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.  EXCEPT FOR THE CURRENT CONVECTIVE
TRENDS...CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING AS INDICATED
BY ALL OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE.  NONE OF THE GUIDANCE CURRENTLY
SHOWS POLO BECOMING A HURRICANE...SO THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS
FOR A PEAK INTENSITY OF 60 KT IN 48-72 HR IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
SHIPS MODEL AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE
RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX ATTACHED TO THE SHIPS MODEL FORECASTS A
35% CHANCE OF 25 KT STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 24 HR...AND IF
THE STRUCTURE OBSERVED IN THE MICROWAVE IMAGERY PERSISTS POLO COULD
GET STRONGER THAN FORECAST.  AFTER 72 HR...THE FORECAST TRACK TAKES
POLO OVER DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INTO INCREASING
SHEAR CAUSED BY THE TROUGH.  THIS COMBINATION SHOULD CAUSE THE
STORM TO WEAKEN.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      03/0900Z  8.9N 112.4W    35 KT
 12HR VT     03/1800Z  9.2N 114.0W    45 KT
 24HR VT     04/0600Z  9.7N 115.7W    50 KT
 36HR VT     04/1800Z 10.3N 117.4W    55 KT
 48HR VT     05/0600Z 11.0N 118.8W    60 KT
 72HR VT     06/0600Z 12.5N 121.0W    60 KT
 96HR VT     07/0600Z 14.0N 123.5W    50 KT
120HR VT     08/0600Z 15.0N 126.0W    40 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Tuesday, 21-Apr-2009 12:09:48 UTC