ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM POLO DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182008 700 PM PST SUN NOV 02 2008 AN SSMIS PASS AT 0105 UTC SUGGESTED A TIGHT CIRCULATION IS DEVELOPING IN THE CENTER OF DEEP CONVECTION. THIS...IN COMBINATION WITH DVORAK T-NUMBERS OF 2.5 FROM TAFB AND SAB SUPPORT UPGRADING THE DEPRESSION TO TROPICAL STORM STATUS. A QUIKSCAT PASS OVER THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE RECEIVED SHORTLY AND WILL HOPEFULLY PROVIDE SOME ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM. THE INITIAL MOTION IS AROUND 280/13. THERE IS STILL LARGE SPREAD IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE...PARTICULARLY AT DAY 3 AND BEYOND. THE HWRF...GFDL AND THE DEEP-LAYER BAM CONTINUE TO FORECAST THE CYCLONE TO RECURVE AHEAD OF A SHARP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT DEVELOPS TO THE WEST OF THE CYCLONE IN MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST A WEAKER SHALLOW CYCLONE THAT DOES NOT FEEL THE INFLUENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH. THESE MODELS...AND THE SHALLOW-LAYER BAM THEREFORE KEEP THE CYCLONE ON A WEST-NORTHWEST HEADING THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT...OR FARTHER EAST...COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...IN AN ADJUSTMENT TOWARD THE TVCN TRACK MODEL CONSENSUS. THE FORWARD SPEED IS SLOWED TO ABOUT 6 KT AT 120 HOURS DUE TO THE LARGE UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME PERIOD. THE CYCLONE HAS BEGUN TO EXTRACT ITSELF FROM THE ITCZ IN THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST SLOW INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS WITH WARM SSTS AND LIGHT SHEAR. THE GFDL...HWRF AND SHIPS ARE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE CYCLONE...BRINGING IT TO HURRICANE INTENSITY AT THE 72 HOUR FORECAST TIME. THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD TO A PEAK OF 60 KT AT 72 HOURS. HOWEVER...THE CYCLONE COULD BE STRONGER BY THAT TIME IF CURRENT ORGANIZATIONAL TRENDS CONTINUE...ALLOWING THE CYCLONE TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. WEAKENING IS INDICATED AT DAYS 4-5 DUE TO COOLING SSTS AND AN INCREASE IN SHEAR WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 03/0300Z 8.9N 111.3W 35 KT 12HR VT 03/1200Z 9.2N 112.9W 40 KT 24HR VT 04/0000Z 9.7N 114.8W 45 KT 36HR VT 04/1200Z 10.3N 116.4W 50 KT 48HR VT 05/0000Z 10.9N 117.9W 55 KT 72HR VT 06/0000Z 12.0N 120.5W 60 KT 96HR VT 07/0000Z 13.5N 123.0W 55 KT 120HR VT 08/0000Z 15.0N 125.0W 45 KT $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN/FRANKLIN NNNN
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