ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172008 800 AM PDT FRI OCT 24 2008 WIND SHEAR...ANALYZED AT 30-50 KT BY CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN...HAS TAKEN A TOLL ON THE SYSTEM IN THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND VORTICITY ARE MOVING QUICKLY NORTHEAST...SPREADING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BECOME ELONGATED AND DIFFICULT TO IDENTIFY...MAKING THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE AN UNCERTAIN 325/07. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB HAVE DECREASED TO 25 KT...BUT I HAVE HELD THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 30 KT...BASED ON A 1258 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS THAT SHOWS A FEW AMBIGUITIES WITH 25-30 KT WINDS EAST OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER LOCATION. IF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER SURVIVES...THE FORECAST REASONING IS UNCHANGED. THE DEPRESSION WILL BE STEERED MORE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY TOWARD THE WEST IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS SOUTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THE CURRENT TRACK FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE SHIPS MODEL...HOLDING THE INTENSITY AT 30 KT THROUGH 12 HOURS...AND SHOWING GRADUAL WEAKENING TO A REMNANT LOW AT 48 HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATION AT 72 HOURS. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL VISIBLE IMAGERY LATER TODAY MAY INDICATE THAT THE CENTER HAS ALREADY DISSIPATED. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 24/1500Z 16.4N 106.7W 30 KT 12HR VT 25/0000Z 17.2N 107.5W 25 KT 24HR VT 25/1200Z 17.9N 108.3W 25 KT 36HR VT 26/0000Z 18.3N 109.5W 25 KT 48HR VT 26/1200Z 18.4N 110.8W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN/FRANKLIN NNNN
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