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Tropical Depression SEVENTEEN-E


ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP172008
200 AM PDT FRI OCT 24 2008
 
THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER REMAINS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE...AND THERE MAY
EVEN BE MULTIPLE SWIRLS WITHIN THE LARGER CYCLONIC GYRE. THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE SCATTER AMONG THE VARIOUS SATELLITE FIX POSITIONS...SO
I HAVE OPTED TO USE AN APPROXIMATE LOCATION OF THE GEOMETRIC CENTER
OF THE LARGER CYCLONIC ENVELOPE DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN NIGHTTIME
FIXES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING MAINTAINED AT 30 KT...MAINLY
DUE TO THE SCATTER IN THE FIX POSITIONS WHICH ALSO AFFECTS THE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES WHEN USING THE DVORAK SHEAR PATTERN TECHNIQUE.
IT IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT TD-17E IS ALREADY A MINIMAL TROPICAL
STORM. IN ORDER TO ALLOW FOR THIS POSSIBILITY...I HAVE INCREASED
THE GUST DIFFERENTIAL IN THE FORECAST/ADVISORY PRODUCT AND ALSO
ADDED 12-FT SEA HEIGHTS IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS AN UNCERTAIN 325/07. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A NEW
CIRCULATION CENTER COULD DEVELOP NEAR THE SMALL BURST OF INTENSE
CONVECTION LOCATED IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT...WHICH WOULD MAINTAIN
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY MOTION OF 360/10. HOWEVER...NONE OF THE
RELIABLE NHC MODELS SUPPORT THAT MOTION FOR MORE THAN 6-12 HOURS
BEFORE TURNING THE CYCLONE SHARPLY NORTHWESTWARD. SOME MODELS SUCH
AS THE GFDL AND HWRF EVEN TURN THE DEPRESSION WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
ALMOST IMMEDIATELY FROM ITS CURRENT POSITION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT TO THE LEFT OF THE
MODEL OF CONSENSUS...AND GRADUALLY BENDS THE TRACK OF A WEAKENING
DEPRESSION TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST BY 24 HOURS AND THEN WESTWARD
AFTER 36 HOURS AS A SURFACE-TO-700 MB RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS MOST OF
MEXICO IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT CURRENTLY PUSHING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND EASTERN MEXICO.
 
AS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY...THE DEPRESSION MAY ALREADY BE VERY NEAR
TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH DEPENDING ON JUST HOW CLOSE THE CENTER
ACTUALLY IS TO THE COLD-TOPPED CONVECTION IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OF THE CIRCULATION. HOWEVER...THE BUILDING LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE
ACROSS MEXICO WILL ACT TO BLOCK ANY SIGNIFICANT POLEWARD MOTION...
WHICH WILL SERVE TO INCREASE THE CURRENT 30-KT SOUTHWESTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ACROSS THE CYCLONE. THEREFORE...UNLESS TD-17E
REACHES TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY WITHIN THE NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO...IT
IS HIGHLY UNLIKELY THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL GET NAMED SINCE THE SHEAR
IS FORECAST BY THE SHIPS MODEL TO INCREASE TO 40-45 KT BY THE
12-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      24/0900Z 15.7N 106.1W    30 KT
 12HR VT     24/1800Z 16.5N 106.7W    30 KT
 24HR VT     25/0600Z 17.5N 107.6W    30 KT
 36HR VT     25/1800Z 18.0N 108.6W    30 KT
 48HR VT     26/0600Z 18.1N 110.1W    25 KT
 72HR VT     27/0600Z 18.1N 112.2W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     28/0600Z 18.1N 115.3W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     29/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Tuesday, 21-Apr-2009 12:09:47 UTC