ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162008 200 AM PDT SUN OCT 12 2008 BASED ON A SERIES OF SSMI AND AMSU MICROWAVE IMAGES BEFORE 06Z...THE WEAK DISORGANIZED SURFACE CIRCULATION APPEARS TO HAVE DECOUPLED SOUTH OF THE MID-LEVEL CENTER WHICH HAS MOVED CLOSE TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR MANZANILLO. CLOUD-DRIFT DERIVED MID TO UPPER WINDS INDICATE INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 20 TO 30 KT OVER THE CYCLONE...WHICH ALIGNS WELL WITH THE GLOBAL MODEL DEPICTION OF THE UPPER-WIND PATTERN. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 35 KT SIMPLY BECAUSE THE CLOUD PATTERN...ALTHOUGH QUITE RAGGED...HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS ALL SUGGEST THAT THE MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR WILL TRANSITION INTO A STRONGER EASTERLY SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AROUND THE 36 HOUR PERIOD. THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO AND INDICATES WEAKENING TO A REMNANT LOW IN 48 HOURS. INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 270/6...A LITTLE SLOWER AND TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE FORECAST REASONING HAS CHANGED A LITTLE DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS SINCE IT APPEARS THAT THE EXPECTED BUILDING OF A LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE BEHIND NORBERT HAS ALREADY COMMENCED. CONSEQUENTLY...A CONTINUED WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO WITH A GRADUAL WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TURN AS SUGGESTED BY THE UKMET AND ECMWF GLOBAL MODELS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE GFS/NOGAPS/UKMET AND ECMWF MODELS WHICH ALL DEPICT A SHEARED WEAKENING TROPICAL CYCLONE DRIFTING WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 12/0900Z 18.2N 104.7W 35 KT 12HR VT 12/1800Z 18.2N 105.1W 35 KT 24HR VT 13/0600Z 18.1N 105.7W 30 KT 36HR VT 13/1800Z 18.0N 106.4W 25 KT 48HR VT 14/0600Z 17.8N 107.1W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 15/0600Z 17.5N 108.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH NNNN
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 21-Apr-2009 12:09:46 UTC