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Hurricane NORBERT


ZCZC MIATCPEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
HURRICANE NORBERT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  31A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152008
1100 AM PDT SAT OCT 11 2008
  
...NORBERT CROSSING SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WEST COAST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA FROM PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO TO AGUA BLANCA...AND FOR THE
EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM NORTH OF LA PAZ TO LORETO.
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF MAINLAND
MEXICO FROM TOPOLOBAMPO NORTHWARD TO GUAYMAS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE
COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM SOUTH OF AGUA BLANCA SOUTHWARD TO
CABO SAN LUCAS AND NORTHWARD AROUND THE PENINSULA TO LA PAZ.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA FROM NORTH OF LORETO NORTHWARD TO MULEGE.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
AT 1100 AM PDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NORBERT WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 24.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.4 WEST OR ABOUT 55 MILES...
85 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO AND ABOUT 75
MILES...120 KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF LA PAZ MEXICO.
 
NORBERT IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR.
A NORTHEAST MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  ON THIS TRACK...NORBERT WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNINA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. 
THE HURRICANE IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA 
AND MAKE LANDFALL IN NORTHWESTERN MEXICO TONIGHT.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  NORBERT IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE.  SOME WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE HURRICANE CROSSES BAJA
CALIFORNIA...BUT NORBERT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A HURRICANE WHEN IT
MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO.  AN
AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO FLY
INTO NORBERT THIS AFTERNOON.
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 966 MB...28.53 INCHES.
 
NORBERT IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6
INCHES OVER SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES.
THESE RAINS COULD RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES.  IN ADDITION...NORBERT COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
 
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG
WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT
FEW HOURS.  STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS IS ALSO EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO...NEAR
AND TO THE SOUTHEAST OF WHERE NORBERT MAKES LANDFALL.
 
REPEATING THE 1100 AM PDT POSITION...24.6 N...111.4 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 15 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105
MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB.
 
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
200 PM PDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/AVILA
 
NNNN


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