ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER 27 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152008 800 AM PDT FRI OCT 10 2008 A HEALTHY RING OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN WRAPPING AROUND THE EYE OF NORBERT...WHICH HAS SHRUNK TO 10-15 NM IN DIAMETER. SATELLITE IMAGERY STILL SUGGESTS THAT THERE ARE TWO EYEWALLS APPROXIMATELY 15 AND 50 NM AWAY FROM THE CENTER...ALTHOUGH THIS NEW CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MIGHT FINALLY ALLOW THE OUTER EYEWALL TO BECOME THE MORE DOMINANT FEATURE. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB HAVE RISEN TO T5.0...OR 90 KT...BUT THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED CONSERVATIVELY TO 85 KT JUST IN CASE THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE STILL NOT REACHING THE SURFACE. A BETTER JUDGMENT ON THE INTENSITY CAN BE MADE ONCE THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REACHES NORBERT AROUND MIDDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY-CLUSTERED THROUGH 36 HOURS...AND EVEN THE GFS NOW AGREES WITH THE OTHER DYNAMICAL MODELS ON LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. AS SUCH...THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST TRACK FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. FORECAST POINTS ARE ONLY GIVEN THROUGH 48 HOURS SINCE THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF NORBERT WILL PROBABLY NOT SURVIVE A CROSSING OF THE SIERRA MADRES. HOWEVER...THE MID-LEVEL REMNANTS AND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL WILL STILL SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST LIES VERY CLOSE TO THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS UP TO LANDFALL SINCE THESE MODELS APPEAR TO BE ACCOUNTING FOR THE EXPECTED INCREASE OF VERTICAL SHEAR OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE NEW FORECAST IS ONLY 5 KT HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...DUE TO THE RECENT APPARENT STRENGTHENING. THE INTENSITY AT 36 HOURS... AFTER NORBERT HAS CROSSED THE BAJA PENINSULA AND IS OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...IS STILL AT HURRICANE STRENGTH ALTHOUGH IS NOT AS HIGH AS THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS AT THAT TIME. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE BAJA PENINSULA WAS NOT DESIGNATED AS A HURRICANE WARNING SINCE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE ONLY EXPECTED ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE SYSTEM...AND THESE WINDS WILL BE BLOWING OFFSHORE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 10/1500Z 20.6N 113.4W 85 KT 12HR VT 11/0000Z 21.9N 113.4W 80 KT 24HR VT 11/1200Z 23.9N 112.5W 75 KT 36HR VT 12/0000Z 26.1N 110.8W 65 KT 48HR VT 12/1200Z 28.3N 109.0W 35 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED INLAND $$ FORECASTER BERG NNNN
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 21-Apr-2009 12:09:45 UTC