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Hurricane NORBERT (Text)

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HURRICANE NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER  26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152008
200 AM PDT FRI OCT 10 2008
 
THE EYE OF NORBERT IS STILL DISTINCT ON IR IMAGES BUT DEEP
CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO DECREASE. THERE IS A PATCH OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN A CURVED BAND ON THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW REMAINS FAIR IN ALL QUADRANTS. DVORAK T-NUMBERS
SUGGEST AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS. THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM NOW ON...BUT THE OCEAN IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN WARM. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR
SO BUT NORBERT SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN THEREAFTER. IT IS STILL
FORECAST TO REACH BAJA CALIFORNIA AS A HURRICANE BUT A MORE RAPID
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER THE CENTER CROSSES BAJA CALIFORNIA.  IN
FACT...MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS DISSIPATE THE CYCLONE IN THE
PORTION OF THE TRACK BETWEEN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND MAINLAND MEXICO.
 
NORBERT IS RIGHT ON TRACK. IT IS STILL MOVING TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 7 KNOTS ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. THE HURRICANE SHOULD
SOON TURN NORTHWARD AND NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN
REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT MAINLY DURING THE FIRST 24 TO 36 HOURS...
INCREASING THE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST. ALL MODELS BRING THE
CORE OF THE HURRICANE TO THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IN ABOUT
36 HOURS AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THEREAFTER...IT APPEARS
THAT NORBERT WILL BECOME DECOUPLED DUE TO SHEAR AND THAT IS WHEN
THE MODELS DIFFER IN THE FORWARD SPEED.  HOWEVER...BY
THEN...NORBERT SHOULD BE A WEAKENING CYCLONE WITH THE MID-LEVEL
CENTER RACING NORTHEASTWARD. MOISTURE FROM NORBERT COULD BRING
RAINS TO PORTION OF WESTERN MEXICO AND SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      10/0900Z 19.7N 113.4W    75 KT
 12HR VT     10/1800Z 20.8N 113.7W    75 KT
 24HR VT     11/0600Z 22.8N 113.0W    70 KT
 36HR VT     11/1800Z 24.6N 111.8W    65 KT
 48HR VT     12/0600Z 27.5N 109.5W    35 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     13/0600Z 31.5N 105.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     14/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
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FORECASTER AVILA
 
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